PROJECT
THRESHOLD
STRATEGIC AI TABLETOP EXERCISE
A 5-hour exercise where senior leaders step into the shoes of twelve named consumer-facing companies — navigating AI diffusion across Retail and CPG through four rounds of real trade-offs, escalating pressure, and cross-company dynamics that no one sees coming.
Designed for C-suite executives and senior strategy leaders. No AI expertise required.
How It Works
Every round follows the same rhythm. Four rounds across five hours, the stakes escalate and the picture gets clearer.
Round-Opening Framing
The facilitator sets the situation: what's true about the world in this round, what changed since the last one, and what your company is facing.
Solo Prep + Cluster Huddle
You analyze your company's position privately, then caucus with the Retail or CPG cluster to pressure-test your direction. Final decisions remain individual.
Public Resolution Phase
Voice of God works through each decision in the open. When your move impacts another company, that company is named and asked to respond before the outcome is resolved.
Peer Ranking + Discussion
The room privately ranks the strongest and weakest moves, then debates them. The cross-company dynamics emerge — and inform the next round.
Four rounds across a simulated arc from 2026 and beyond, with escalating complexity and accumulating consequences.
First-mover decisions in an AI landscape that is broadly capable but unevenly deployed
Early 2026. Foundation models are mainstream but agentic AI is unreliable. Retail media is the new battleground. You commit to your first-mover position.
Reactive decisions plus a commitment to a strategic stance for the years ahead
Early 2027. Capabilities have hardened. Last year's bets are visible. You react, recommit, or pivot — and lock in a strategic stance for the years ahead.
Long-jump round; substantially shifted competitive conditions
2030. Three years have passed. The competitive landscape has substantially shifted. Some companies have risen; some have fallen. The strategic ground is no longer what you planned for.
Final round resolving the consequences of Y5 strategy
2031. Final round. The consequences of Y5 strategy play out. Endgame execution against the new reality.
Why Cross-Company?
Most AI strategy happens in a silo. You plan for your company, your competitive set, your supplier and customer base. But AI diffusion doesn't stay inside any one company's strategy.
When Walmart raises retail media take-rates, every branded CPG's marketing budget gets squeezed. When Costco expands Kirkland into a new category, every legacy brand in that aisle feels it. When Amazon launches a new private-label SKU, the entire CPG room has to recalibrate. These are the dynamics that don't show up in a strategy deck.
Twelve Companies. Two Clusters. One Exercise.
Each participant runs one real, named company across Retail and CPG. Your decisions are individual, but their consequences are shared.
Who It's For
C-Suite Executives
CEOs, COOs, CTOs, and CFOs making AI investment decisions with incomplete information and high stakes.
Senior Strategy Leaders
Heads of strategy, corporate development, and strategic planning directors setting direction for large organizations.
Investment Professionals
Portfolio managers, managing directors, and investment leaders evaluating AI-related risk and opportunity across industries.
No AI technical expertise required. You bring industry knowledge and strategic judgment — the exercise provides the AI context.
The complete exercise — all materials in a single printable PDF.