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Rules of Play

Rules of Play#


A. EXERCISE STRUCTURE#

Format: Single-session strategic tabletop exercise. Each participant runs one real, named company through three mandatory rounds (Y1, Y2, Y5) plus an optional Y6 round or mandatory short wrap.

The Companies: 12 named consumer-facing companies across two clusters.

ClusterCompanies
Retail (7)Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Target, Kroger, Best Buy, Sprouts Farmers Market
CPG (5)P&G, PepsiCo, Unilever, Kraft Heinz, Edgewell Personal Care

Two CPG slots remain available for additional companies if the participant count or design intent warrants.

Round Sequence:

RoundStatusFunction
Y1MandatoryFirst-mover decisions in early 2026
Y2MandatoryReactive decisions + strategic-stance card for the Y3–Y4 gap
Y5MandatoryLong-jump round in 2030 with substantially shifted conditions
Y6Optional with mandatory 20-min wrap fallbackIf energy: full round playing out Y5 consequences. If not: structured outcome narration + reflection.

Duration: Approximately 5 hours including debrief; exact pacing set by facilitator.


B. COMPANY ASSIGNMENT#

Each participant runs exactly one company throughout the exercise — there is no rotating, splitting, or representing multiple companies in parallel.

Assignment Principles#

  1. Expertise match: Where possible, assign participants to companies aligned with their professional experience.
  2. No participant runs more than one company. Simpler scoring, deeper strategic engagement.
  3. Facilitator may run unfilled seats if participant count is below 12. Facilitator decisions follow base-case logic for unfilled companies.

Y5 Reassignment#

In Y5, participants whose companies enter Crisis condition (per Company Health Signals) may be reassigned to emergent companies that have appeared in the competitive landscape between Y2 and Y5. Reassigned participants receive a fresh packet at the start of Y5 and are briefed on their new role. This is part of the exercise design; reassignment is not a penalty but a structural element of the long-jump round.


C. ROUND FLOW (Y1 AND Y2)#

Each round runs approximately 50–60 minutes. Pacing is at facilitator discretion.

#ActivityDurationWho
1Round-opening framing (situation update, any new conditions)5 minFacilitator
2Solo prep (review prompt, private cards, draft initial direction)5–7 minIndividual
3Cluster huddle (Retail and CPG caucuses; discuss, pressure-test, revise)8–10 minSmall groups
4Decision submission (worksheets handed in — LOCKED at this point)2 minIndividual
5Public Resolution phase20–25 minFacilitator + All
6Peer Ranking (private Success + Impact; public Aggressiveness poll)5 minAll
7Cross-company discussion (incorporates ranking discussion)10 minAll

The Cluster Huddle#

Retail and CPG participants caucus separately during prep. Use the huddle for pressure-testing and revision, not groupthink — final decisions are individual. Cross-cluster conversation happens later in the Resolution phase and cross-company discussion.


D. THE RESOLUTION PHASE (V8.1 CORE MECHANIC)#

The Resolution phase is the engine of cross-company interaction in V8.1. It replaces V8.0's Collective Bonus and Facilitator Market Shock mechanics with a more dramatic structure. Peer Ranking (Section H below) runs alongside it and continues to drive score-relevant cross-company assessment.

What Happens#

  1. Voice of God reviews submitted decisions. The facilitator (acting as referee) reads each company's submitted decision and notes any decision that meaningfully impacts other companies in the room. Participants flag relevant impacts in field 11 of the worksheet (Cross-Company Impact).

  2. Voice of God works through decisions in turn. For each decision with cross-company impact, the facilitator names the impacted parties publicly and asks each for a short verbal response. ("Walmart is raising retail media take-rate by 20%. P&G — how do you respond? Unilever? PepsiCo? Kraft Heinz? Edgewell?")

  3. Impacted parties respond briefly. Each named party gives a short qualitative response (30–60 seconds) describing how they react. Their response can include: absorb, push back, ally with another player, escalate, withdraw from the channel, etc.

  4. Voice of God resolves and narrates. Incorporating the responses, the facilitator narrates the resolved outcome: did the take-rate increase stick or did defections force a partial rollback? Did the alliance form? Did the M&A approach succeed?

Voice of God Discretion#

The facilitator decides what counts as impactful enough to merit consultation. Not every decision triggers it. Solo internal moves (e.g., back-office AI deployment) may resolve without consultation. Decisions targeting specific competitors, restructuring industry economics, or making explicit alliance/M&A overtures will always trigger consultation.

Why This Mechanic#

The Resolution phase creates explicit competitive interaction between players within a structured, turn-based, time-bounded framework. The interactions are public — everyone watches the confrontations unfold — which generates the dramatic and learning moments that pure narration cannot.


E. DECISION RULES#

One Decision Worksheet Per Round#

Each participant submits one Decision Worksheet per round for their assigned company. The worksheet must include all required fields (see Section M).

Strategic Archetype is Mandatory#

Every decision must commit to one of the 5 archetypes: Labor Reshape, Process Reinvention, Customer/Product Bet, Defensive Hardening, Strategic Swing. The decision must fit within the selected archetype.

Locked at Submission#

Once handed in (after the cluster huddle), decisions cannot be revised. Sunk costs are real.

Cross-Company Impact Field#

Field 11 of the worksheet identifies which other companies your decision meaningfully affects, and how. This field directly informs the Resolution phase. Use it to flag explicit competitive moves, alliance overtures, M&A approaches, and any decision that meaningfully shifts another company's options.

No Dollar Figures#

Use bands and qualitative descriptors. The exercise builds intuition, not financial projections.

Default Fallback#

If a participant does not submit a worksheet by the deadline, the facilitator assigns a base-case fallback score (deterministic, small fixed delta).

Decision Continuity#

  • You cannot undo prior-round decisions (sunk costs are real)
  • You can expand, modify, or shut down prior decisions in later rounds
  • The Continuity Note field (Y2 and Y5) captures how this round's decision builds on or pivots from prior-round work, including reaction to the Voice of God's outcome narration

F. STRATEGIC STANCE CARD (Y2 ONLY)#

Y2 introduces a new field on the Decision Worksheet: the Strategic Stance Card.

Purpose#

The stance card bridges the Y3–Y4 narrative gap between the Y2 decision and the Y5 long-jump round. You commit to a strategic posture for the intervening two years, and Voice of God narrates the Y5 outcomes informed by your stance.

Mechanics#

On the Y2 worksheet, check exactly one of three stances:

StanceWhat it means
Aggressive growthSpend capital, take share, ride the cycle. Accept margin pressure for position.
Operational disciplineProductivity, efficiency, return capital. Defend what's working.
Strategic pivotReshape portfolio, enter new categories or exit old ones. Use the moment to change the company.

Provide a brief justification — what does this stance mean specifically for your company?

Important Properties#

  • Submitted with the Y2 decision. You commit to your stance simultaneously with your Y2 action, without yet knowing how Y2 played out.
  • Locked. Like the Y2 decision, the stance cannot be revised once submitted.
  • Narrative, not scoring. The stance does not modify your score. Any stance can succeed or fail depending on what 2030 brings. The stance shapes how Voice of God narrates your Y5 starting conditions.

G. PRIVATE INFORMATION CARDS#

Distribution#

  • Cards issued in Y1 and Y2 only (no Y5 or Y6 cards)
  • Each company receives a small number of private cards per round
  • Distributed face-down at the start of each round's solo prep phase
  • CONFIDENTIAL. Do not share contents unless the facilitator explicitly permits

Card Usage#

  • Reference card information in your decision and discussions without revealing specifics
  • Card influence is noted on each Decision Worksheet (field 12)
  • Cards accumulate across rounds — keep them and refer back

H. SCORING#

Per-Round Score (Y1 and Y2)#

Each round's decision is scored on two layers that combine into a round total.

Layer 1 — Facilitator Scoring (Strategic Fit + Execution Risk)#

Dimension-20+2Exception (±3)
Strategic FitMisaligned with scenario; opportunity costDefensible but not boldCaptures core opportunity; clear positioning±3 unlocked only on red-flag trigger
Execution RiskMajor barriers; ambitious beyond capacityFeasible; some change management neededStraightforward; resources/talent ready±3 unlocked only on red-flag trigger

Facilitator subtotal: -4 to +4 (or -6 to +6 with red-flag exceptions on either dimension)

Layer 2 — Peer Ranking#

After the Resolution phase, all participants privately rank decisions on Success and Impact, and publicly vote on Aggressiveness.

AxisMechanismScore Impact
Most likely to succeedEach participant privately ranks; aggregate top/bottomTop of group: +1, Bottom: -1, Middle: 0
Greatest impactEach participant privately ranks; aggregate top/bottomTop of group: +1, Bottom: -1, Middle: 0
Most aggressivePublic poll (show of hands or quick verbal vote)Read-only — drives discussion, no score

Peer subtotal: -2 to +2.

You cannot rank your own company. Aggressiveness is read-only because the goal is to make boldness visible without rewarding or punishing it.

Round Total#

Strategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2) + Peer Success (±1) + Peer Impact (±1) = -6 to +6 per round (or -8 to +8 with red-flag exception)

Peer Ranking Flow (Step 6 of round flow)#

StepActionTime
1After Resolution phase, each participant privately writes rankings on Success and Impact (1 = best, N = worst). Cannot rank own company.3 min
2Facilitator polls publicly for "Most aggressive" — show of hands or verbal poll1 min
3Facilitator aggregates private rankings, identifies top and bottomparallel (1 min)
4Discussion moves into Step 7 (Cross-company discussion), opening with: top of Success — why? Bottom — why? Top of Impact — why? Most aggressive — why?(Step 7)
5Score adjustments applied: Top of Success = +1; Bottom = -1; same for Impact. Aggressiveness is read-only.applied at facilitator scoring

Y5 Scoring#

Y5 uses the same scoring framework as Y1 and Y2 (Facilitator + Peer Ranking, -6 to +6). The Y5 narrative payoff comes primarily through Voice of God outcome narration, not score deltas alone.

Note on Scoring Philosophy#

The exercise is intuition-building, not performance evaluation. Scoring exists to create structure and stakes; it is not the point of the exercise. The Voice of God outcome narration and cross-company dynamics carry more meaning than the numerical score.


I. COMPANY HEALTH SIGNALS#

At the end of Y2, each company's cumulative Y1+Y2 score determines its Health Signal — and consequently its Y5 starting trajectory.

Thresholds calibrated for two-round cumulative scoring (each round ±6 nominal, ±8 with red flags; two-round cumulative range therefore around ±12 nominal, ±16 with red flags). Thresholds positioned so that Surge and Crisis require consistent strong/weak performance across both rounds, not just one outlier round.

ConditionCumulative Y1+Y2 ScoreY5 Effect
Surge+8 or higherDominant. Acquires a peer (in-room or out-of-room). Resource freedom in Y5.
Tailwind+3 to +7Expanded. Material organic share gain. Slightly de-risked.
Steady-2 to +2Persists. No structural transformation but no relief either.
Headwind-3 to -7Diminished. Forced defensive posture. Constrained decision space.
Crisis-8 or worseFails or is acquired. Participant is reassigned to an emergent company.

The Health Signal feeds into the Y5 outcome narration but does not determine it deterministically. The Voice of God narration also incorporates strategic-stance choices, the specific Y5 conditions, and the room's collective dynamics.


J. Y5 — THE LONG-JUMP ROUND#

Y5 is structured differently from Y1 and Y2 to reflect its long-jump nature.

Key Differences#

  1. Substantially shifted conditions. The world has moved significantly between Y2 and Y5. Voice of God describes the Y5 conditions at the start of the round.
  2. Strategic-stance-informed starting point. Each participant's Y3–Y4 stance shapes their Y5 starting position. The Y5 input identifies how the stance played out.
  3. Possible reassignment. Participants whose companies entered Crisis after Y2 are reassigned to emergent companies that have appeared in the competitive landscape. Reassigned participants receive a fresh packet during the Y5 opening.
  4. Y5 decisions still follow standard worksheet format. Same archetype mandatory, same fields, same Resolution phase, same scoring framework. Continuity Note remains relevant — Y5 decisions can build on or pivot from Y1–Y2 positioning.

Y5 Pacing#

Y5 is allocated more time than Y1/Y2 — approximately 75–90 minutes — to accommodate the larger setup (situation update, capability briefing, potential reassignment) and the higher-stakes Resolution phase. Specific pacing at facilitator discretion.


K. Y6 — OPTIONAL OR MANDATORY WRAP#

Y6 runs in one of two modes depending on energy in the room at the Y5 close.

Mode A: Full Y6 Round (optional, expanded)#

If the room is engaged and time permits, Y6 runs as a full round with new decisions playing out Y5 consequences. Same flow as Y1/Y2/Y5. Facilitator's call.

Mode B: 20-Minute Mandatory Wrap (fallback)#

If energy is low or time is tight, Y6 collapses to a structured 20-minute wrap.

SegmentTimeActivity
1. Y5 outcome narration (VoG)8 minFinal state of each company; reveal final Health Signal; identify cross-company patterns
2. Pattern reveal5 minFacilitator surfaces the cross-company patterns: which strategic stances paid off, which AI postures aged well, which companies got blindsided
3. Strategic-takeaway round5 minEach participant names the one insight they're taking back to their real-world role. Round-robin, 30 seconds each.
4. Facilitator closing2 minTie back to the exercise's central thesis: AI diffuses at the speed of the slowest constraint.

The Mode B wrap is also runnable as a closing segment after a Mode A full Y6 round, in which case Y5 outcomes are replaced with Y6 outcomes in segment 1.


L. PRACTICE WALKTHROUGH (Optional)#

If time permits before the main session — typically at a dinner the night before or in an extended morning warm-up — a 30–60 minute practice walkthrough orients participants to the format.

  1. Rules drill (around 15 min): Walk through the worksheet, the bands, the 5 archetypes, the per-round flow, the Resolution phase
  2. Mini-scenario (around 30 min): Run a single non-scored practice decision on a simplified version of one company
  3. Q&A (around 15 min): Address questions on format, scoring, Resolution phase, strategic stance

The practice is non-scored and does not carry over into the main exercise. The goal is to demystify the format so the main session can move quickly into substantive decisions.


M. DECISION WORKSHEET FIELDS#

Every Decision Worksheet must include all required fields (completed before submission lock). One worksheet per round.

CRITICAL: Use bands and qualitative descriptors. No dollar figures, no point estimates. The exercise builds intuition, not spreadsheet projections.

#FieldNotes
1Company IdentificationCompany name (e.g., Walmart, P&G, Edgewell)
2Strategic Archetype (mandatory)Check ONE: Labor Reshape / Process Reinvention / Customer/Product Bet / Defensive Hardening / Strategic Swing. Decision must fit within selected archetype.
3Decision Statement1–2 sentences — what action and why
4Spend/Commitment BandAbsorbable / Material but manageable / Transformational bet / Potentially existential — with justification
5Time-to-Impact Band0–3 mo / 3–12 mo / 1–2 yr / 2+ yr — with justification
6Execution Complexity BandLow / Medium / High / Very high — with justification
7Dependency BandMostly internal / Vendor / Regulator/Union/Standards / Ecosystem shift — with justification
8ScalePilot / Regional / National / Global
9Expected ImpactDirectional, qualitative — what changes if this works. No dollar figures.
10Key Risk & MitigationTop 1–2 risks + mitigations
11Cross-Company ImpactWhich other companies in the room does this decision meaningfully affect, and how? Write "Independent" if none. Informs the Resolution phase.
12Private Card Influence (Y1, Y2 only)How this round's card(s) shaped the decision, or "None"
13Continuity Note (Y2, Y5 only)How this builds on prior-round decision; reference the outcome narration
14Strategic Stance for Y3–Y4 (Y2 ONLY — mandatory)Check ONE: Aggressive growth / Operational discipline / Strategic pivot, with justification

N. KEY RULES SUMMARY#

RuleDetails
ParticipantsOne company per participant. 12 named consumer-facing companies (7 Retail + 5 CPG). Facilitator runs unfilled seats.
RoundsY1, Y2, Y5 mandatory; Y6 optional with mandatory 20-min wrap fallback.
Decisions Per RoundOne Decision Worksheet per round.
Strategic ArchetypeMandatory selection from 5 options on every worksheet. Same set across all rounds.
No Dollar FiguresUse bands and qualitative descriptors.
Cluster HuddleEvery round. around 8–10 min within each round; small groups by Retail / CPG cluster. Discussion + revision happens here.
Locked at SubmissionOnce handed in, decisions are final. No revision.
Cross-Company ImpactNew required worksheet field. Informs the Resolution phase.
Resolution PhaseNew V8.1 mechanic. Public, around 20–25 min/round. Voice of God consults impacted parties before resolving outcomes. Replaces Collective Bonus and Facilitator Market Shock.
Peer RankingRetained from V8.0. Most likely to succeed (private) + Greatest impact (private) + Most aggressive (public). Top of group = +1, bottom = -1 on Success and Impact. Aggressiveness is read-only. Cannot rank own company.
Round TotalStrategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2) + Peer Success (±1) + Peer Impact (±1) = -6 to +6 per round (or -8 to +8 with red flags)
Company Health SignalsCumulative Y1+Y2 score → condition. Surge: +8+; Tailwind: +3 to +7; Steady: -2 to +2; Headwind: -3 to -7; Crisis: -8 or worse. Determines Y5 starting trajectory.
Strategic Stance CardY2 only. Choose Aggressive growth / Operational discipline / Strategic pivot. Bridges Y3–Y4 to Y5. Narrative, not scoring.
ScoringStrategic Fit + Execution Risk, each {-2, 0, +2}; ±3 only on red-flag triggers. Range: -4 to +4 per round (or -6 to +6 with red flags).
Default FallbackNo worksheet submitted → company receives pre-defined base case fallback.
Y5 ReassignmentParticipants in Crisis after Y2 may be reassigned to emergent companies in Y5. Structural element, not a penalty.
Y6Optional full round or mandatory 20-min wrap. Facilitator decides at Y5 close based on room energy.
Private CardsY1 and Y2 only. Company-specific. Confidential. Note influence on worksheet.

End of Rules of Play — V8.1