Rules of Play#

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A. EXERCISE STRUCTURE#

Format: Single 8-hour session (8:30 AM – 4:30 PM, with lunch break 12–1 PM)

Participants:

• 5–11 industry representatives (each selects one or more industries from the 11-industry framework)
• 1-2 facilitators + observers

The 11 Industries: Retail, CPG, Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer, Finance, Consulting, Law, Manufacturing, Logistics, Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS

Duration: 4 rounds of deliberation + scorekeeping + practice micro-round at start

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B. INDUSTRY SELECTION#

Before the exercise begins, each participant selects the industries they will represent. The facilitator coordinates assignments based on participant expertise, professional background, and interest.

Assignment Guidelines#

• Ideal: 8 or more industries assigned across participants
• Minimum: Fewer than 8 is possible; the facilitator plays any unassigned industries
• Maximum: No participant should represent more than 3 industries
• Facilitator coverage: The facilitator can represent up to 3 unassigned industries, submitting decisions on their behalf using base-case assumptions

Recommended Assignments by Participant Count#

Assignment Principles#

1. Expertise match: Where possible, assign participants to industries aligned with their professional experience.
2. Natural pairings: When a participant takes 2 industries, related industries (e.g., Healthcare Provider + Healthcare Payer, Retail + CPG) are natural but not required. Cross-industry pairs (e.g., Finance + Big Tech) can produce valuable perspective.
3. Workload balance: Each additional industry means an additional Decision Worksheet per round. Participants with 2+ industries should be comfortable with higher decision throughput.

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C. ROUND FLOW#

Each round follows this sequence. All timings are strict; participants with incomplete submissions are auto-dropped to secondary decisions.

Sequence (per round: 65 minutes total)#

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D. DECISION RULES#

Industry-Level Decisions (Mandatory)#

Each participant submits one independent Decision Worksheet per assigned industry per round. If you represent 2 industries, you submit 2 separate worksheets.

The 11 Industries:

Format & Submission#

• One Decision Worksheet per industry per round (e.g., a participant representing Retail and CPG submits 2 worksheets per round)
• Each industry decision is independent: Scored on its own merits against the 3 dimensions, evaluated in that industry's specific context
• Binding: Cannot be reversed once submitted. Sunk costs are real. Round 2 builds on Round 1 decisions.

Default Fallback#

If a participant does not submit a Decision Worksheet for an assigned industry by the deadline, that industry defaults to its pre-defined base case for the round (a conservative, status-quo decision determined by the facilitator). The base case scores 0 on all three dimensions.

Cross-Industry Synergies#

Participants representing multiple industries may coordinate decisions across their assigned industries (e.g., Retail and CPG may share data investment that benefits both). However:

• Each industry's decision must be articulated separately on its own worksheet
• Each decision is scored independently
• You must note cross-industry synergies in the "Cross-Industry Synergies" field (e.g., "Retail and CPG coordinating on shared data platform; demand signal benefits both")

Auto-Drop Rule#

• If a participant misses the 3-minute submission deadline for any industry, that industry's decision is auto-dropped to secondary status (lower scoring ceiling)
• Secondary industry decisions score on the same 3 dimensions but are capped at +2 per dimension (vs. +3 for primary on red-flag triggers)

Decision Continuity#

• You cannot undo prior-round decisions in any industry (sunk costs are real)
• You can expand, modify, or shut down prior decisions in later rounds
• Each industry decision can reference and build on its own prior-round decisions
• If new information contradicts an earlier decision, you must explain adaptation in the Continuity Note (e.g., "Healthcare Provider deployed AI diagnostics in R1, but R2 clinical workflow integration issues forced us to pause full rollout; pivoting to targeted AI in high-variance specialties instead")

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E. PRIVATE INFORMATION CARDS#

Distribution & Confidentiality#

• Cards issued in Rounds 1, 2, 3 only (no Round 4 card; the final round is about synthesis)
• 3 cards per industry per round (Rounds 1–3):
  • Card 1: May be shared between related industries (e.g., Retail and CPG may receive the same Card 1, framed differently)
  • Cards 2 and 3: Unique to each industry
• Distributed face-down at the start of each round's decision preparation phase
• CONFIDENTIAL to your industry. Do not share contents with other industries unless the facilitator explicitly permits
• Cards are facts discovered through internal analysis, market intelligence, or regulatory contacts
• All private information cards are located in the Private Cards folder

Card Usage#

• You may reference card information in your decision and cross-industry discussion (without revealing specifics)
• You should NOT read cards aloud to other industries
• Card contents must be noted on your Decision Worksheet: "Private card influence: [One-sentence summary of how this card shaped my decision]"
• Cards accumulate — keep all cards from prior rounds and refer to them in later rounds

Card Influence Disclosure#

Every Decision Worksheet must include a line:

"Private Card Influence (if any): [Sentence describing how this round's card(s) affected this decision, or 'None']"

This ensures transparency about information asymmetry.

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F. SCORING OVERVIEW#

Scoring Framework: Banded Scoring During Play#

Decisions are scored per industry on three dimensions using a banded scale:

• Strategic Fit {-2, 0, +2} (with rare +/-3 on red-flag trigger)
• Execution Risk {-2, 0, +2}
• Tail Risk {-2, 0, +2}
• Round Score Range: -6 to +6 per industry decision (primary) or -4 to +4 (secondary)

Dimension Definitions#

Strategic Fit (-2, 0, +2, +/-3):

• +2: Decision aligns perfectly with the industry's position and evolving AI landscape. Shows conviction and market awareness.
• 0: Decision is defensible but lacks clarity or bold positioning. Safe, middle-of-the-road.
• -2: Decision misaligns with the industry's position or ignores market realities. Contradicts prior messaging or signals.
• +/-3 (Red-Flag Trigger Only): Rare. Used only if decision is reckless (+3 strategic genius) or catastrophic (-3 existential failure).

Execution Risk (-2, 0, +2, +/-3):

• +2: Decision is feasible given resources, timeline, and organizational capacity. Participant has credible path to delivery.
• 0: Decision is feasible but tight. Some risk of delay or scope creep.
• -2: Decision is ambitious beyond capacity. High risk of failure, delay, or cost overrun.
• +/-3 (Red-Flag Trigger Only): +/-3 reserved for decisions that are either trivially easy (+3, should have decided this already) or technically impossible (-3, no way to execute).

Tail Risk (-2, 0, +2, +/-3):

• +2: Decision accounts for downside scenarios (regulatory backlash, liability, customer defection, competitive response). Participant has contingency planning.
• 0: Decision acknowledges some risks but lacks contingency depth.
• -2: Decision ignores major downside risks (regulatory, reputational, or financial tail events). Participant is exposed.
• +/-3 (Red-Flag Trigger Only): +/-3 reserved for decisions that are either extremely defensive (+3, perhaps overly cautious) or recklessly exposed to catastrophe (-3).

Scoring Example#

Retail Industry, Round 1 Decision: "Pilot personalization in 3 key categories, with built-in ROI pause points. Budget: 8 points. Timeline: 12 weeks. Success metric: +5% basket size in pilot categories without return-rate lift. Risk: Brand backlash if personalization feels invasive; we're monitoring social sentiment daily and have kill-switch authority."

Facilitator Scoring:

• Strategic Fit: +2 (clear positioning, market-smart)
• Execution Risk: +2 (tight timeline but achievable; proven pilot capability)
• Tail Risk: +2 (strong acknowledgment of brand risk and contingency plan)
• Round 1 Score: +6

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G. COLLECTIVE BONUS (OPTIONAL)#

How It Works#

Each round, during the cross-industry discussion period, participants may collectively recognize an industry whose strategy was especially strong — or flag one whose strategy seems especially risky. This is optional: if no one feels strongly, no bonus is applied.

Why This Matters#

• Peer recognition creates social accountability without requiring forced voting every round.
• The ±2 swing is meaningful over multiple rounds — it can shift your Industry Health condition (see below).
• The optional nature encourages genuine engagement: nominations carry weight because they are voluntary.

Facilitator Market Shock (Round 2 Only)#

In Round 2, the facilitator imposes one constraint each on 2-3 industries, selected from the constraint menu. If your industry is targeted, you must adapt your decision. Constraints include: regulatory halts, labor cost surges, capital tightening, reputational pressure, competitive response, litigation risk.

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G2. INDUSTRY HEALTH SIGNALS#

Starting in Round 2, the facilitator announces your industry's Health Condition based on your cumulative score across all rounds:

Note: Collective Bonus results (±2), when applied, affect your cumulative score and can shift your Industry Health condition over time.

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H. AI ADOPTION ARC#

The exercise is structured around a four-phase AI adoption arc that mirrors the round progression:

• Each phase handout describes the evolving AI landscape, market conditions, and industry dynamics for that round
• Phase materials are located in the AI Adoption Arcs folder
• Read each phase handout before beginning your decision preparation for that round

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I. PRACTICE MICRO-ROUND#

Before Round 1, all participants complete a 10-minute practice micro-round to familiarize with the process.

Micro-Round Script#

1. Facilitator reads: "It's Q2 2026. Your industry is growing 5% YoY. A new AI competitor has entered the market. A major customer is asking about your AI strategy."
2. Inject card given: "A major customer has requested a custom AI solution — high-revenue opportunity but 6-month timeline and $2M development cost."
3. Individual preparation: 5 minutes. Analyze: Do we bid on this? What are risks? How does it align with our industry position?
4. Decision submission: 1-minute deadline. Participant submits a simple 2-sentence decision on the practice worksheet (one per assigned industry).
5. Scoring: Facilitator scores on the 3 dimensions (banded). Participant sees scoring rubric in action.
6. Debrief: Facilitator explains: "This is the pace and format for Rounds 1–4."

Goal: Demystify the process, show participants the format, and calibrate scoring expectations. Highlight that each industry decision is scored independently.

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J. DECISION WORKSHEET FIELDS#

Every Decision Worksheet must include these fields (completed before the 3-minute deadline). Submit one worksheet per industry.

CRITICAL INSTRUCTION: Use bands; avoid invented precision. The goal is to build intuition about AI adoption trajectories, not to produce spreadsheet-ready estimates.

Required Fields#

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K. KEY RULES SUMMARY#

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End of Rules of Play — V7.4