Rules of Play
Rules of Play#
A. EXERCISE STRUCTURE#
Format:
- Dinner the night before: ~60-min practice walkthrough (rules drill + mini-scenario; partial attendance OK)
- Main session: 8:00 AM – 1:00 PM (5 hours), 4 scored rounds + debrief
Participants:
- 5–11 industry representatives (each represents one or more industries from the 11-industry framework)
- 1–2 facilitators
The 11 Industries: Retail, CPG, Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer, Finance, Consulting, Law, Manufacturing, Logistics, Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS
Duration: 4 scored rounds (~50–60 min each) + 30–60 min debrief. Practice round happens at dinner.
B. INDUSTRY SELECTION#
Before the exercise begins, each participant selects the industries they will represent. The facilitator coordinates assignments based on participant expertise, professional background, and interest.
Assignment Guidelines#
- Ideal: 8 or more industries assigned across participants
- Minimum: Fewer than 8 is possible; the facilitator plays any unassigned industries
- Maximum: No participant should represent more than 3 industries
- Facilitator coverage: The facilitator can represent up to 3 unassigned industries, submitting decisions on their behalf using base-case assumptions
Recommended Assignments by Participant Count#
| Participants | Industries per Person | How It Works |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2–3 each | Each participant takes 2 industries, with 1 participant taking 3. Facilitator covers any remaining. |
| 7 | 1–2 each | 4 participants take 2 industries; 3 take 1 each. Facilitator balances workload and expertise. |
| 9 | 1–2 each | 2 participants take 2 industries; 7 take 1 each. Near-full coverage with minimal doubling. |
| 11 | 1 each | Each participant represents exactly 1 industry. Maximum depth and discussion diversity. |
Assignment Principles#
- Expertise match: Where possible, assign participants to industries aligned with their professional experience.
- Natural pairings: Related industries (e.g., Healthcare Provider + Healthcare Payer; Retail + CPG) work well as pairs but cross-cluster pairings are also valuable.
- Workload balance: Each additional industry = an additional Decision Worksheet per round.
C. ROUND FLOW#
Each round runs ~50–60 minutes. Steps and timings approximate; facilitator paces to budget.
Round Sequence#
| # | Activity | Duration | Who |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Outcome Narration + Industry Health Signals announcement (R2/R3/R4 only) | 4–5 min | Facilitator |
| 2 | Facilitator Market Shock (R2 only — constraints imposed on 2–3 industries) | 3 min | Facilitator |
| 3 | Situation Update + Inject Cards revealed | 4–5 min | Facilitator |
| 4 | Solo prep (analyze prompt + private cards + AI Adoption Arc; sketch initial direction) | ~5 min | Individual |
| 5 | Cluster huddle (small groups by industry cluster: discuss, pressure-test, revise decisions) | ~10 min | Small groups |
| 6 | Decision submission (worksheets handed in — LOCKED at this point) | 2 min | Individual |
| 7 | Read decisions aloud (each participant reads their locked decision) | ~5 min | All |
| 8 | Peer Ranking (Success + Impact privately; Aggressiveness publicly) | ~5 min | All |
| 9 | Discussion of rankings ("Why top? Why bottom?") | ~10 min | All |
| 10 | Facilitator scoring (Strategic Fit + Execution Risk) | parallel with 9 | Facilitator |
Industry Cluster Groupings (for Step 5 Huddles)#
| Cluster | Industries |
|---|---|
| Consumer | Retail, CPG |
| Healthcare | Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer |
| Finance & Professional Services | Finance, Consulting, Law |
| Supply Chains | Manufacturing, Logistics |
| Software & Tech | Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS |
Participants huddle within their cluster every round to refine decisions. The huddle is for revision and pressure-testing, not for groupthink — final decisions are still individual.
D. DECISION RULES#
Industry-Level Decisions (Mandatory)#
Each participant submits one independent Decision Worksheet per assigned industry per round. If you represent 2 industries, you submit 2 separate worksheets.
Format & Submission#
- One Decision Worksheet per industry per round
- Each industry decision is independent — scored on its own merits in its own context
- Strategic Archetype is mandatory — every decision must commit to one of: Labor Reshape / Process Reinvention / Customer/Product Bet / Defensive Hardening / Strategic Swing
- Locked at submission. Once handed in (after cluster huddle), decisions cannot be revised. Sunk costs are real.
- No dollar figures. Use bands and qualitative impact — exercise is about intuition, not spreadsheet-ready estimates.
Default Fallback#
If a participant does not submit a Decision Worksheet for an assigned industry by the deadline, that industry receives a pre-defined base case fallback score from the facilitator's fallback bank (deterministic, small fixed delta).
Cross-Industry Synergies#
Participants representing multiple industries may coordinate decisions (e.g., Retail and CPG sharing a data investment). Each industry's decision must still be articulated separately on its own worksheet, scored independently, with cross-industry coordination noted in the worksheet's Cross-Industry Synergies field.
Decision Continuity#
- You cannot undo prior-round decisions (sunk costs are real)
- You can expand, modify, or shut down prior decisions in later rounds
- The Continuity Note field captures how this round's decision builds on or pivots from prior-round work, including reaction to the facilitator's outcome narration
E. PRIVATE INFORMATION CARDS#
Distribution & Confidentiality#
- Cards issued in Rounds 1, 2, 3 only (no R4 card — final round is synthesis)
- 3 cards per industry per round (R1–R3):
- Card 1 may be shared between related industries (e.g., Retail + CPG may receive the same Card 1, framed differently)
- Cards 2 and 3 are unique to each industry
- Distributed face-down at the start of each round's solo prep phase
- CONFIDENTIAL to your industry. Do not share contents with other industries unless the facilitator explicitly permits
- All cards are located in Private Cards
Card Usage#
- Reference card information in your decision and discussions (without revealing specifics)
- Do NOT read cards aloud to other industries
- Card influence must be noted on each Decision Worksheet (field 12)
- Cards accumulate across rounds — keep them and refer back
F. SCORING OVERVIEW#
Two-Layer Scoring (Per Decision)#
Every decision is scored on two layers that combine for the round total.
Layer 1 — Facilitator Scoring (Strategic Fit + Execution Risk)#
| Dimension | -2 | 0 | +2 | Exception (±3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Fit | Misaligned with scenario; opportunity cost | Defensible but not bold | Captures core opportunity; clear positioning | ±3 unlocked only on red-flag trigger |
| Execution Risk | Major barriers; ambitious beyond capacity | Feasible; some change management needed | Straightforward; resources/talent ready | ±3 unlocked only on red-flag trigger |
Facilitator subtotal: -4 to +4 (or -6 to +6 with red-flag exceptions)
Layer 2 — Peer Ranking#
After all decisions are read aloud, peers rank decisions on three axes:
| Axis | Mechanism | Score impact |
|---|---|---|
| Most likely to succeed | Each participant privately ranks; aggregate top/bottom | Top of group: +1, Bottom: -1, Middle: 0 |
| Greatest impact | Each participant privately ranks; aggregate top/bottom | Top of group: +1, Bottom: -1, Middle: 0 |
| Most aggressive | Public poll (show of hands or quick verbal vote) | Read-only — drives discussion, no score |
Peer subtotal: -2 to +2
You cannot rank your own industry.
Round Total#
Strategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2) + Peer Success (±1) + Peer Impact (±1) = -6 to +6 per round
G. PEER RANKING (Replaces Former Collective Bonus)#
Why Peer Ranking#
The peer ranking is the engine of cross-industry learning. It forces every participant to engage with every decision, creates structured discussion, and surfaces patterns across industries. Aggressiveness is read-only because the goal is to make boldness visible without rewarding or punishing it.
How It Runs#
| Step | Action | Time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | All locked decisions read aloud (already happened in step 7) | — |
| 2 | Each participant privately writes rankings on Success and Impact (1 = best, N = worst). Cannot rank own industry. | ~3 min |
| 3 | Facilitator polls publicly for "Most aggressive" — show of hands or verbal poll | ~2 min |
| 4 | Facilitator collects private rankings, aggregates, identifies top and bottom | ~1 min (parallel) |
| 5 | Open discussion: top of Success — why? Bottom — why? Top of Impact — why? | ~10 min |
| 6 | Score adjustments applied: Top of Success = +1; Bottom = -1; same for Impact. Aggressiveness is read-only. | applied at scoring |
The aggressiveness ranking is public on purpose — peer pressure to defend bold moves is productive.
G2. OUTCOME NARRATION#
At the start of Rounds 2, 3, and 4, the facilitator narrates approximately 30–45 seconds per industry describing what happened from the prior round's decision and where each industry stands now. This includes the Industry Health Signal condition.
Template: "[Industry]: your [archetype] decision in R[n-1] [worked / partially worked / backfired]. [Specific consequence]. Going into this round, you are in [Surge / Tailwind / Steady / Headwind / Crisis]."
Outcome narration replaces the older "facilitator announces conditions in 2 minutes" beat — it integrates the condition announcement into a narrative that connects decisions to consequences.
G3. INDUSTRY HEALTH SIGNALS#
Starting in Round 2, the facilitator announces each industry's Health Condition (folded into Outcome Narration) based on cumulative score across all rounds:
| Condition | Range | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Surge | +15 or higher | One Transformational-band decision allowed without auto red-flag challenge |
| Tailwind | +6 to +14 | No modifier |
| Steady | -5 to +5 | No modifier |
| Headwind | -6 to -14 | One constraint imposed; must address before submitting |
| Crisis | -15 or worse | Two constraints imposed; pure-growth decision scores auto -2 Strategic Fit |
Facilitator Market Shock (Round 2 Only)#
In Round 2, the facilitator imposes one constraint each on 2–3 industries selected from the constraint menu. Targeted industries must adapt their R2 decision before submission. Constraints include: Regulatory Halt, Labor Cost Surge, Capital Tightening, Reputational Pressure, Competitive Response, Litigation Risk.
H. AI ADOPTION ARC#
The exercise tracks a four-phase AI adoption arc that mirrors round progression:
| Round | Phase | Distribution |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Foundation | Included in pre-read packet |
| Round 2 | Acceleration | Handout distributed at start of Round 2 |
| Round 3 | Reckoning | Handout distributed at start of Round 3 |
| Round 4 | Normalization | Handout distributed at start of Round 4 |
Read each phase handout during solo prep. Materials in AI Adoption Arcs.
I. PRACTICE WALKTHROUGH (Dinner, Night Before)#
A ~60-minute practice walkthrough runs at the dinner the night before the main session. Partial attendance is acceptable — anyone who misses dinner gets a 15-minute orientation in the morning opening.
Practice Walkthrough Flow#
- Rules drill (~15 min): Walk through the worksheet, the bands, the 5 archetypes, the round flow
- Mini-scenario (~30 min): Run a single non-scored practice round on a stripped-down version of one industry
- Q&A (~15 min): Address questions on format, scoring, peer ranking
Goal: Demystify the format. No real scores. No carryover into the main exercise.
J. DECISION WORKSHEET FIELDS#
Every Decision Worksheet must include 13 fields (completed before submission lock). Submit one worksheet per industry per round.
CRITICAL: Use bands and qualitative descriptors. No dollar figures, no point estimates. The exercise builds intuition, not spreadsheet projections.
| # | Field | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industry Identification | Industry name (e.g., Retail, Healthcare Provider, Big Tech) |
| 2 | Strategic Archetype (mandatory) | Check ONE: Labor Reshape / Process Reinvention / Customer/Product Bet / Defensive Hardening / Strategic Swing. Decision must fit within selected archetype. |
| 3 | Decision Statement | 1–2 sentences — what action and why |
| 4 | Spend/Commitment Band | Absorbable / Material but manageable / Transformational bet / Potentially existential — with 1–2 sentence justification |
| 5 | Time-to-Impact Band | 0–3 mo / 3–12 mo / 1–2 yr / 2+ yr — with justification |
| 6 | Execution Complexity Band | Low / Medium / High / Very high — with justification |
| 7 | Dependency Band | Mostly internal / Vendor / Regulator/Union/Standards / Ecosystem shift — with justification |
| 8 | Scale | Pilot / Regional / National / Global |
| 9 | Expected Impact | Directional, qualitative — what changes if this works. No dollar figures. |
| 10 | Key Risk & Mitigation | Top 1–2 risks + mitigations |
| 11 | Cross-Industry Synergies | One sentence on coordination, or "Independent decision" |
| 12 | Private Card Influence (R1–R3) | How this round's card(s) shaped the decision, or "None" |
| 13 | Continuity Note (R2–R4) | How this builds on prior-round decision; reference the outcome narration |
K. KEY RULES SUMMARY#
| Rule | Details |
|---|---|
| Participants | 5–11 industry representatives + 1–2 facilitators. Ideal: 8+ industries assigned. Facilitator covers up to 3 unassigned industries. |
| Decisions Per Round | 1 Decision Worksheet per industry per round. If you represent 2 industries, you submit 2 worksheets. |
| Strategic Archetype | Mandatory selection from 5 options on every worksheet. Same set across all rounds. |
| No Dollar Figures | Use bands and qualitative descriptors. The exercise builds intuition, not financial projections. |
| Cluster Huddle | All 4 rounds. ~10 min within each round; small groups by industry cluster. Discussion + revision happens here. |
| Locked at Submission | Once handed in (after cluster huddle), decisions are final. No revision. |
| Default Fallback | No worksheet submitted → industry gets pre-defined base case fallback score. |
| Facilitator Scoring | Strategic Fit + Execution Risk, each {-2, 0, +2}; ±3 only on red-flag triggers. Tail Risk dimension removed in V7.5. |
| Peer Ranking | Most likely to succeed (private) + Greatest impact (private) + Most aggressive (public). Top of group = +1, bottom = -1 on Success and Impact. Aggressiveness is read-only. Replaces former Collective Bonus. |
| Round Total | Strategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2) + Peer Success (±1) + Peer Impact (±1) = -6 to +6 |
| Outcome Narration | Facilitator narrates 30–45 sec per industry at start of R2/R3/R4. Sets up new round; integrates Industry Health Signal conditions. |
| Private Cards | 3 cards per industry per round (R1–R3). Confidential. Note influence on worksheet. No card in R4. |
| AI Adoption Arc | Foundation in pre-read; Phases 2–4 distributed at start of R2/R3/R4. |
| Facilitator Market Shock | R2 only: facilitator imposes constraints on 2–3 industries from constraint menu. |
| Industry Health Signals | Cumulative score → condition (Surge / Tailwind / Steady / Headwind / Crisis). Headwind = 1 constraint; Crisis = 2 constraints + defensive play required. |
| R4 Contingency | If main session is running long at the 11:25 break, R4 runs as discussion-only (no new decisions, no scoring) and debrief extends. |
End of Rules of Play — V7.5