For Facilitators
Everything you need to prepare for and run the full 5-hour exercise. Start with the preparation checklist below — the rest is reference material organized by when you'll need it.
Preparation Checklist
Complete these before exercise day, in order. Plan for around 2 hours of total preparation time.
Read the Facilitator Guide README
10 minOrientation to the v8.1 materials and the overall run posture. Start here to understand what changed and how the guide is organized.
Read READMERead the Adjudication Runbook
30 minHow the Resolution Phase works, what Voice of God does, and the narration patterns you'll use to call out impacted companies and resolve outcomes publicly. This is the document you'll have open during the exercise.
Read RunbookStudy Scoring Baselines
20 minStrategic Fit and Execution Risk calibration with worked examples, plus Company Health Signal thresholds that map cumulative Y1+Y2 scores to Y5 fate trajectories. Practice scoring a few example decisions before the day.
Scoring BaselinesReview the Quick Reference Card
10 minAt-a-glance summary of scoring bands, Resolution Phase flow, and round timing. Pin this during the exercise.
Quick Reference CardSkim the Base Case Fallback
5 minWhat to do if a participant doesn't submit a worksheet — pre-built defensible default decisions per company so the round keeps moving.
Base Case FallbackReview Supporting Materials
Facilitator-only materials that inform Y5 narration — the Y5 World State and the two emergent-company packets. Read these before exercise day so the Y5 round lands with full context.
Everything below this point is reference material — organized by category so you can find what you need during the exercise itself.
Facilitator Guide — Reference
Core Documents
Facilitator Guide README
Orientation to the v8.1 materials and run posture. Start here.
Adjudication Runbook
Resolution Phase mechanics, Voice of God narration patterns, and red-flag triggers.
Scoring Baselines
Strategic Fit and Execution Risk calibration with worked examples, plus Company Health Signal thresholds.
Quick Reference (for use during the exercise)
Round Materials
Each round document contains the scenario text, narration prompts, scoring guidance, and Resolution Phase notes specific to that round.
Round Y1
First-mover decisions in early 2026. Key facilitation challenge: calibrating scoring before participants have found their rhythm, and establishing Resolution Phase norms.
Round Y2
Reactive decisions plus the strategic stance card that bridges the Y3–Y4 gap. Cumulative Y1+Y2 score sets each company's Y5 fate trajectory.
Round Y5
2030. Capability and competitive disruption land. Most companies persist in transformed form; 1–2 in Crisis are reassigned to emergent companies. Highest-facilitation-intensity round.
Round Y6
Optional fourth round, with a mandatory 20-minute wrap fallback: Y5 outcome narration, pattern reveal, strategic-takeaway round, and facilitator closing.
Supporting Materials
Facilitator-only materials that inform Y5 narration. Not distributed to participants.
Y5 World State
The 2030 capability and market environment underlying Y5 narration. Read before the Y5 round so the world lands consistently.
Anthropic Shopping Packet
Emergent-company packet used for Y5 reassignments. Distributed only to a reassigned participant during the Y5 reveal.
TrueGoods Packet
Second emergent-company packet for Y5 reassignments. Distributed only to a reassigned participant during the Y5 reveal.
Participant Materials
Review what participants see before the exercise. Understanding their perspective — their constraints, information gaps, and decision framing — is essential for effective facilitation.
Exercise Overview
High-level exercise structure and objectives
Company Packets
All 12 company-specific participant packets
Private Cards
Distributed each round — company-specific confidential intelligence cards
Rules of Play
Comprehensive participant rules and mechanics
Decision Worksheet
Printable worksheet for recording round decisions, including the Y2 strategic stance card