Round Y5 — The Long Jump (2030)#

Facilitator Note

FACILITATOR FILE. Sections marked "Participant Briefing" are read to or distributed to participants. Sections marked "Facilitator-Only" are not shown to participants. This is the most facilitation-dense round in the exercise.

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1. Round Overview (Facilitator-Only)#

Purpose#

Y5 is the long-jump round. Three years have passed since Y2. The world has moved substantially — AI capabilities have compounded, the political and consumer environment has hardened, white-collar displacement has become a material economic and political force, and (the central reveal) the AI labs that built the foundational capabilities have entered the consumer value chain as direct competitors to the companies in the room.

Y5 is structured to deliver three substantial strategic shocks in sequence:

1. The capability shock. AI is now substantially more capable than it was at the end of Y2. Personal AI agents are mainstream; AI customer service is indistinguishable from human; generative video is quality-indistinguishable; robotics is economically competitive in fulfillment; AI customer-facing applications work.
2. The competitive shock. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have entered the consumer commerce and life-management value chain as direct competitors. Anthropic Shopping handles weekly grocery purchases for tens of millions of households. OpenAI Personal manages calendars, travel, services, and increasingly commerce. Google Personal Health bootstraps from Google account incumbency into broad life management.
3. The reassignment shock. Participants whose companies entered Crisis condition after Y2 step into emergent companies in Y5. The room composition has changed.

These three shocks land in deliberate sequence during the Y5 opening. The facilitator's job is to land each one with appropriate weight and then move the round into the standard decision-and-resolution flow.

What Y5 Tests#

• Adaptive strategy under regime change. Y1 and Y2 tested first-mover and reactive thinking within the same competitive frame. Y5 tests whether participants can re-orient when the frame itself shifts.
• Reading what survived from Y1–Y2 strategy. Some Y1–Y2 bets were structurally well-positioned for the 2030 world; others were structurally exposed. Y5 reveals which.
• Stance-card playback. Each participant chose Aggressive growth / Operational discipline / Strategic pivot in Y2. Y5 narration shows how their stance played in the world that emerged.
• Confronting a competitor that wasn't in the room. Anthropic Shopping (and possibly OpenAI / Google by VoG narration) are now genuine competitive threats. Participants who treated AI labs as vendors in Y1–Y2 face the consequences.

Calibration#

Y5 is intentionally dramatic. The reveal sequence should feel like a strategic crisis, not a continuation. Participants should leave the briefing feeling that what they thought they were doing has been substantially recontextualized.

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2. Round Flow (Y5)#

Y5 runs longer than Y1 or Y2 due to the multi-part opening sequence.

Total: approximately 85–105 minutes. This is the longest round in the exercise by a meaningful margin.

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3. Facilitator Briefing Notes — The Reveal Sequence (Facilitator-Only)#

The Y5 opening sequence is theater with a purpose. Move through it deliberately. Don't rush; don't drag.

Step 1 — Y2-to-Y5 Outcome Narration (10–12 min)#

Three years of action compressed into 30–45 seconds per company. The narration draws on three inputs:

1. The Y2 decision and outcome
2. The strategic stance card chosen for Y3–Y4
3. The cumulative Health Signal trajectory

Template#

"[Company]: your Y2 decision to [X] under [archetype], combined with your Y3–Y4 stance of [Aggressive growth / Operational discipline / Strategic pivot], produced [specific three-year trajectory]. By 2030, [where they stand]. Your Health Signal trajectory was [Surge / Tailwind / Steady / Headwind / Crisis] — [what that means for Y5 starting position]."

Examples (illustrative — actual narration depends on Y1–Y2 decisions and stance choices)#

"Walmart: your Y2 push to deepen Walmart Connect's first-party data advantage, combined with your Aggressive growth stance through Y3–Y4, produced sustained retail media revenue growth but also locked you into deeper Anthropic API dependency than your peers. By 2030, Walmart Connect is the largest US retail media network — and also the most exposed to the agent-layer disintermediation that's now visible. Your Tailwind Health Signal trajectory means you enter Y5 expanded organically but with new competitive realities to navigate."

"Kraft Heinz: your Y2 decision to accelerate the $600M reinvestment and your Strategic pivot stance toward better-for-you and premium positioning produced visible Q4 2027 and 2028 momentum — but Berkshire reduced its stake materially during 2028 and the brand portfolio remained pressured by private label and agent-mediated commodity decisioning. By 2030, you have stabilized but at lower revenue than Y2. Your Headwind Health Signal trajectory means you enter Y5 diminished and in forced defensive posture."

"Sprouts: your Y2 acceleration of attribute-based personalization and your Operational discipline stance produced strong comps and material margin expansion, plus a successful regional grocery acquisition in 2028. By 2030, you have nearly doubled store count and your category authority in attribute-based grocery is unrivaled. Your Surge Health Signal trajectory means you enter Y5 dominant — and you've just acquired a struggling regional chain that gives you national coverage."

Narration Principles#

• Honor the decisions and stance. Each company's three-year arc should follow plausibly from the choices they made.
• Make the trajectory specific and concrete. Avoid vague "you grew" or "you struggled" framing. Name what happened.
• Surface trajectory-relevant Y5 challenges. Each narration should end with a hint at what they're facing in Y5 — but stop short of full reveal (that comes in Steps 2 and 3).
• Keep tight on time. 30–45 seconds per company; for 12 companies, this is the entire 10–12 minute window.

Step 2 — The 2030 World Briefing (5–7 min)#

Read Participant Briefing Part A (Section 4 Part A below) aloud or distribute as a handout. This sets the world state as of 2030.

The framing should feel like a step-change from Y2's "more capable, more deployed." This is "AI is now broadly capable and consumer-mainstream."

Step 3 — The AI Lab Competitive Reveal (5–7 min)#

This is the dramatic core of Y5. Read Participant Briefing Part B (Section 4 Part B below) aloud. The reveal can be paced for effect:

• Pause briefly after the first sentence describing each AI lab competitor.
• Use phrases like "this is new" and "this was not in the room three years ago."
• Surface the specific competitive implications for the companies in the room: "Walmart, Amazon, Costco — Anthropic Shopping now mediates the customer relationship for tens of millions of your former customers. P&G, Unilever, Kraft Heinz — the brand-equity-to-consumer relationship is now algorithmically mediated."

Participants will react. Let them react briefly — gasps, comments, leans-in — but move forward.

Step 4 — Emergent Company Introductions (5 min)#

If participants are reassigned to emergent companies, this is where they present themselves to the room.

Reassignment Briefing (done during the inter-round break before Y5 opens)#

Reassigned participants should have received their new packet during the break and had 15–20 minutes to absorb it. By Y5 open, they should be ready to step into the new role.

Public Introduction Sequence#

After the AI Lab Competitive Reveal, the facilitator transitions:

"Two things have happened that change the composition of this room. First, [Crisis-company X] has failed / been acquired / restructured. Second, two emergent companies have entered the consumer value chain over the last three years. [Reassigned participant], you are now running [emergent company]. Please introduce your company to the room."

The reassigned participant gives a 60–90 second introduction:

• Company name and one-line positioning
• Scale and trajectory
• What the company does that's strategically relevant to the room
• Strategic posture going into Y5

The facilitator can support with framing if the reassigned participant is still absorbing — but the public introduction is part of the dramatic structure of the reveal. Let them own it.

If There Is No Reassignment (No Crisis Conditions)#

If no participant was in Crisis at end of Y2 — possible but unusual — the facilitator should still introduce Anthropic Shopping and (if relevant) TrueGoods as part of VoG narration in Step 3. The competitive reality is the same; only the room composition is unchanged.

Step 5 — Solo Prep and Cluster Huddle#

Standard mechanic, but expect longer time spent on solo prep than Y1 or Y2 (participants are absorbing more new information). The cluster huddle may also feel different — if a participant was reassigned to an emergent company that doesn't fit neatly into Retail or CPG, the huddle structure needs facilitator judgment. (Anthropic Shopping likely joins the Retail cluster but with caveats; TrueGoods likely joins the CPG cluster.)

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4. Y5 Participant Briefing (READ ALOUD OR DISTRIBUTED)#

The Y5 participant briefing has two parts. Part A sets the 2030 world; Part B reveals the AI lab competitive entry. Read or distribute them in sequence; do not read both at once.

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PART A — The State of Play, 2030#

Three years have passed. AI capabilities that were emerging in 2027 are now production-grade and broadly deployed. The political and consumer environment has hardened around AI displacement. The competitive landscape — particularly in consumer commerce — has shifted in ways no one in this room fully anticipated.

What AI Now Does in 2030#

Capabilities that were demonstrable but not deployable at the end of Y2 are now mainstream:

• Personal AI agents are consumer-mainstream technology. A typical AI-augmented household uses their personal agent dozens of times daily — for shopping, scheduling, search, customer service, financial decisions, basic information retrieval. Average AI-augmented household saves 4–6 hours per week on routine logistics.
• AI customer service is indistinguishable from senior humans for routine interactions. Most major retailers and CPGs have collapsed routine contact center headcount by 50–70%.
• Generative video is quality-indistinguishable from human production for most commercial uses. Marketing creative costs have collapsed at companies that have leaned in.
• Robotics is economically competitive in fulfillment and increasingly in manufacturing. Amazon's most automated fulfillment centers operate with 5% of the headcount they had in 2024. Selective US manufacturing reshoring is underway.
• Autonomous trucking is mainstream on major corridors. I-10, I-80, I-95 long-haul is around 80% autonomous in favorable weather. Trucking labor costs down 40%.
• AI software engineering has compounded. Senior engineers orchestrate AI coders; junior pipelines collapsed; AI-native startups now build at 10% the team size of 2024 incumbents.
• AI healthcare diagnostics and primary care are largely AI-first for routine conditions.

What hasn't arrived: general-purpose intelligence, general-purpose robotics, AI-led frontier scientific R&D. AI is highly capable in narrow domains but still requires human strategic judgment for integrated multi-domain problems.

Macro and Political Environment in 2030#

• White-collar displacement has been material. Roughly 25% of knowledge work roles in legal services, accounting, junior software engineering, basic marketing, content moderation, and customer service have been automated or substantially restructured. Displacement is geographically and demographically concentrated.
• Political environment is structurally hostile to visible automators. Multiple state UBI experiments. Federal AI Workforce Transition Act passed in 2028. The "Made by Humans" bipartisan congressional caucus pushes visible-automator taxation. Three states have "right to human service" laws.
• Consumer is fractured. Under-30 implicitly trusts AI agents; over-55 has driven a measurable counter-movement toward verified-human products and services. The income gap between AI-augmented and AI-displaced households has widened materially. A "verified human" premium of 10–20% has emerged in food, beauty, and services.
• Sustained antitrust attention on AI labs and on retail concentration. Energy grid and data center politics contested at state level. Three states have data center moratoria.
• Marketing model under structural stress. The same generative AI that lets brands produce cheap creative also produces synthetic content at scale; consumer trust in commercial messaging has fractured.

What the Three Years Showed#

The Y1–Y2 decisions you made have played out. The Y3–Y4 stance you committed to has been executed. Where you stand now is the result of your choices and the choices of the companies in the room and the AI capabilities that have emerged in the broader economy. The Voice of God narration at round-open just walked through your specific trajectory.

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PART B — The Competitive Landscape Has Changed#

In the three years since Y2, the foundational AI labs — Anthropic, OpenAI, Google — have moved beyond infrastructure and API into direct consumer products. Each of them is now a competitor in the value chain you operate in.

Anthropic Shopping#

Anthropic launched a personal shopping agent in late 2027. By 2030, it is the dominant agent in US consumer staples, handling weekly purchases for around 32 million US households (around a quarter of US online-shopping households). It mediates consumer choice between retailers, places orders, manages returns, and handles 80%+ of household-level grocery, household-goods, personal-care, and baby-and-family commerce for its Pro-tier subscribers.

Anthropic Shopping's positioning is vertical, transparent, trustworthy. The agent operates with privacy discipline (only sees purchases, not life management), publishes its decision logic to consumers, and has built deep API integrations with around half of US retailers. The other half resist. Anthropic does not own warehouses, run stores, or stock inventory. Retailers fulfill; brands manufacture; Anthropic decides.

OpenAI Personal#

OpenAI launched a full life-management agent in early 2028. By 2030, it handles calendar, travel, subscriptions, email management, services scheduling, family logistics, and increasingly commerce. Its scope is much broader than Anthropic Shopping's — and its privacy posture is much more aggressive. The premium tier includes ambient listening (with consent). The "let me hand my life to AI" frontier; mainstream adoption but sustained regulatory and political heat.

Google Personal Health#

Google launched a personal health concierge in 2027 and has progressively expanded into broader life management — calendar, travel, shopping, scheduling — leveraging existing Gmail, Google Account, and search-history integration. Quieter than OpenAI publicly; larger installed base because it bootstrapped from existing Google users. Antitrust attention building but slower than OpenAI's regulatory exposure.

What This Means for the Room#

The customer relationship for a large share of consumer commerce now sits at the agent layer rather than at the retailer or the brand. Retailers that integrated with Anthropic Shopping have fulfillment economics; retailers that refused have declining share. CPG brands that have a relationship with the agent layer (sponsored placement, verified-product-data integration) have brand visibility; CPGs without it are picked by the algorithm based on consumer preferences they don't fully control.

Customer attention, customer data, customer choice — these have shifted upward in the value chain.

The traditional moats — retail media, brand equity, distribution scale, physical density — still matter, but their relative weight has changed. Physical density still matters (someone has to fulfill the agent's orders). Brand equity matters but is now algorithmically evaluated. Retail media matters but reaches a shrinking share of consumer attention as agent-mediated commerce grows.

And One More Change#

[FACILITATOR: introduce reassigned participants here. See Section 3, Step 4.]

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What Y5 Asks of You#

You are making your third strategic decision, in a world that is substantially different from the one you started in. Your Y5 worksheet is structurally the same as Y2 (Continuity Note, Cross-Company Impact, no Stance Card — that was a one-time Y2 mechanic).

Bear in mind:

• The new competitors are real. Anthropic Shopping, OpenAI Personal, and Google Personal Health are not abstractions; they are taking real share, real margin, and real customer relationships.
• Your starting position is constrained by Health Signal. Some of you are dominant; some of you are diminished. Choose your Y5 moves within that reality.
• The room composition has changed. Emergent companies are at the table. Your competitive set is different.
• Sunk costs from Y1 and Y2 are real. You can pivot in Y5, but you cannot undo what you built.

Take your seat. Decide.

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5. Health Signal → Y5 Starting Condition Translation (Facilitator-Only)#

The Y2-to-Y5 outcome narration weaves Health Signal trajectory into each company's story. For reference, here is how each condition translates:

Specific Translations to Weave into Outcome Narration#

Per company, the narration should describe:

• What the company did during Y3–Y4 (driven by stance card)
• How that interacted with what other companies did
• Where the company stands in 2030 (specific revenue trajectory, market position, capability profile)
• What constraints they're operating under in Y5

Surge companies should have visible Y5 advantages (resource freedom, acquisition completed, capability moat widened). Crisis companies' replacement narratives (the reassigned participants) should feel like a fresh start with high strategic leverage in the new emergent role.

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6. Emergent Company Introduction Protocol (Facilitator-Only)#

Pre-Round Briefing#

During the inter-round break before Y5, the facilitator privately briefs each reassigned participant:

1. Explain the reassignment as structural ("your company was in Crisis after Y2; you are now stepping into a new strategic seat that has emerged in the Y3–Y5 period")
2. Hand them the emergent company packet (Anthropic Shopping Packet or TrueGoods Packet)
3. Give them 15–20 minutes to absorb the new packet
4. Confirm they understand the public-introduction format they'll deliver at Y5 open

Assignment Logic#

If only one participant is in Crisis: assign to Anthropic Shopping (the more strategically central emergent). TrueGoods can be referenced by VoG without a participant seat.

If two participants are in Crisis: assign one to Anthropic Shopping and one to TrueGoods.

If zero participants are in Crisis: both emergent companies appear in VoG narration as off-stage competitors. No reassignment needed; the room composition is unchanged.

If more than two participants are in Crisis: this would be unusual and probably indicates a scoring miscalibration. Assign two to emergent companies; the others narratively persist in diminished form (their original company is now in Chapter 11 / breakup / private-equity restructuring; the participant continues as the restructuring leader). The "more than two in Crisis" scenario should be rare given the Health Signal thresholds.

Public Introduction Format#

When the reassigned participant introduces themselves to the room (Step 4 of the Y5 reveal sequence), the format is:

1. Company name and one-line positioning ("I'm running Anthropic Shopping, the dominant US personal shopping agent")
2. Scale and trajectory ("Around 32 million US households; $4.2B 2029 revenue; IPO not yet")
3. Strategic relevance to the room ("I mediate consumer commerce for around a quarter of US online-shopping households; that means I'm a direct competitor to most of you who run retailers, and a structural counterparty to most of you who run CPG brands")
4. Strategic posture going into Y5 ("Our scope discipline has been the moat — narrow, transparent, trustworthy commerce. Whether we extend that posture or expand horizontally is exactly the question I'm carrying into this round.")

What If the Reassigned Participant Is Reluctant#

If a participant is uncomfortable with the reassignment — feeling that their Y1–Y2 strategy was unfairly punished — acknowledge it privately during the break but commit to the structural framing. The exercise's design relies on participants engaging with the reassignment as a new seat, not as punishment for the previous seat. The participant who runs Anthropic Shopping has the most strategic leverage in the room; they should engage with that opportunity, not relitigate Y1–Y2.

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7. Y5 Resolution Phase Guidance (Facilitator-Only)#

What's Different in Y5 Resolution#

Y5 Resolution has stakes that Y1 and Y2 did not. Decisions made now play out in Y6 (or are narrated in the Y6 wrap fallback). The competitive landscape has been redefined by the AI lab entry. Expect:

• Confrontations with emergent companies. Participants running legacy retail and CPG companies will likely target Anthropic Shopping or TrueGoods in their Y5 decisions — either competitively (price war, exclusive partnership refusal, regulatory action) or via partnership / acquisition.
• Sharper M&A activity. Surge-trajectory companies have resource freedom; Crisis-replaced participants running emergent companies have IPO and partnership optionality; weakened players are potential targets.
• Coalitions against the new entrants. Multiple retail or CPG players may publicly ally against Anthropic Shopping's expansion. This is realistic competitive behavior; let it surface.
• Significant scope changes for legacy companies. Y5 is when "Strategic Swing" archetype decisions get serious. Major divestitures, transformational M&A, and platform repositioning are plausible Y5 moves.

Y5-Specific Move Types#

In addition to all Y1 and Y2 Move types, watch for:

Running the Y5 Resolution Phase#

The mechanics are the same as Y1 and Y2, but the stakes and the scope are higher. Specific guidance:

1. Lead with the emergent companies. Their Y5 decisions are the most strategically central. Let Anthropic Shopping (if seated) make their Move first; consult the affected retailers and CPGs publicly.
2. Resolve Y5 confrontations with consequence weight. A Y5 outcome can determine whether a company succeeds, gets acquired, or fails in the Y6 narrative. Resolve decisively.
3. Honor the strategic-stance playback. Y5 outcomes are partly determined by the Y3–Y4 stance choices that were locked in Y2. Reference them explicitly: "Walmart, your Aggressive growth stance has placed you in a position where you can match this move; Sprouts, your Operational discipline stance has preserved capital but constrains your options here."
4. Surface the AI capability reality. Decisions that rely on AI capabilities should be evaluated against the 2030 capability ceiling (see Y5 World State doc). A Y5 decision that assumes capabilities that aren't yet at scale (general-purpose robotics, AGI, etc.) should be challenged in narration.

What Voice of God Is NOT Allowed to Do in Y5#

• Reveal AGI or beyond-2030-ceiling capabilities (those are Y6 territory if at all)
• Pre-determine Y6 outcomes (Y6 has its own dynamic if a full round; Y6 wrap can resolve loose threads)
• Soften the reveal — the AI lab competitive entry is a real strategic shock and should be treated as such

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8. Peer Ranking Guidance (Y5) (Facilitator-Only)#

Run Peer Ranking as in Y1 and Y2. By Y5, participants have substantial calibration from prior rounds.

Y5-specific dynamics:

• The "Most likely to succeed" ranking will be heavily influenced by Health Signal context (participants reward those who have navigated the new world well rather than those who simply had a good Y5 decision)
• "Greatest impact" should reward decisions that visibly reshape the Y5 competitive landscape — including the emergent companies' moves
• "Most aggressive" often shifts to whoever is taking the biggest swing against the AI lab competitive entry (or, conversely, the emergent company taking the biggest expansion swing)

Open the post-ranking discussion with the standard prompts, plus two Y5-specific:

• "What did the AI lab entry change for the room?"
• "Who positioned best for 2030? Was it about Y5 decisions or about Y1–Y2 foundation?"

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9. Scoring Guidance (Y5) (Facilitator-Only)#

Standard Two-Layer Scoring#

Same framework as Y1 and Y2:

Layer 1 — Facilitator: Strategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2), with ±3 red-flag exceptions. Layer 2 — Peer Ranking: Top of Success (+1) / Bottom (-1); Top of Impact (+1) / Bottom (-1). Round total: -6 to +6 (or -8 to +8 with red-flag exceptions).

Y5-Specific Scoring Notes#

• Strategic Fit in Y5 evaluates fit to the 2030 world, not the 2026 world. A decision that would have been brilliant in 2026 may now be misaligned with the actual competitive reality.
• Execution Risk in Y5 should account for resource constraint by Health Signal. A Crisis-trajectory company attempting a Transformational decision has higher Execution Risk than the same decision from a Surge-trajectory company. Score accordingly.
• Emergent company seats use the same scoring. Anthropic Shopping and TrueGoods participants are scored on the same dimensions. Y5 is their first scored round; no prior continuity to evaluate against.
• Red-flag triggers may be more common in Y5. The dramatic competitive landscape produces more extreme decisions. Don't hesitate to use ±3 when warranted.

Cumulative Tracking#

After Y5 scoring, calculate the cumulative Y1+Y2+Y5 score for each company. This cumulative position is the basis for Y6 outcome narration (whether full round or wrap). Note for emergent-company participants: their cumulative score starts at Y5; no prior-round contribution.

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10. Hand-Off to Y6 (Facilitator-Only)#

The Y6 Decision Point#

At the end of Y5 cross-company discussion, the facilitator evaluates whether to run Y6 as a full round or as the 20-minute mandatory wrap.

Criteria for Full Y6#

• Time remaining is at least 60 minutes
• Room energy is engaged and curious
• Y5 produced strategic threads worth playing out (M&A in progress, coalition still forming, etc.)
• Participants have appetite for one more decision cycle

Criteria for Wrap Y6#

• Time is tight (less than 45 minutes remaining including debrief)
• Room energy is fatigued
• Y5 produced sufficiently complete narrative closure
• Participants are ready for synthesis rather than more decisions

How to Announce#

"We have two options for Y6. We can run it as a full round — one more decision cycle playing out the consequences of what just happened in Y5. Or we can move to a 20-minute structured wrap with final outcome narration, pattern reveal, and takeaway round. [Read the room.] My recommendation is [X]."

The recommendation is the facilitator's call. Participants don't vote, but their visible reaction (yes / no, energy / fatigue) informs the call.

If Full Y6#

Move to the Y6 round file (06_d_Y6.md) for the full round structure.

If Wrap Y6#

Move to the Y6 wrap structure (also in 06_d_Y6.md). The wrap is structured 20 minutes:

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11. Y5 Checklist (Facilitator-Only)#

Before Y5 starts:

• Y2-to-Y5 outcome narration prepared — 30–45 seconds per company, drawing on Y2 decision + stance + Health Signal
• Y5 Participant Briefing Parts A and B ready (Section 4)
• Reassignment briefings completed for Crisis-trajectory participants
• Anthropic Shopping packet distributed to assigned participant (if applicable)
• TrueGoods packet distributed to assigned participant (if applicable)
• Decision Worksheets (Y5 version — Continuity Note required, no Stance Card) distributed
• Score sheet has cumulative Y1+Y2 totals plus Y2 Health Signal conditions
• Y5 World State doc reviewed by facilitator (canonical 2030 reference)

During Y5, capture:

• Each participant's Y5 archetype + direction
• Each participant's Cross-Company Impact targets
• Each participant's Continuity Note
• Emergent company participants' Y5 moves and counters (these reshape the Y6 narrative)
• Resolution phase consultations and resolutions
• Peer Ranking results
• Facilitator score deltas
• Cumulative Y1+Y2+Y5 score per company
• Standout moments for Y6 narration / wrap

After Y5:

• Evaluate room energy and time remaining
• Announce Y6 mode (full round or wrap)
• Transition into Y6

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Document Version: Project Threshold V8.1 — Y5 Round File (Facilitator Reference) Last Updated: May 2026