Exercise Overview
Project Threshold — Executive Overview#
A strategic tabletop exercise on AI diffusion across consumer-facing industries (2026–2030).
What This Is#
Project Threshold V8.1 is a single-session strategic tabletop exercise designed for mixed groups of senior consultants and C-suite / SVP-level client executives. Each participant runs one real, named consumer-facing company (Walmart, Amazon, P&G, Kraft Heinz, and others — 12 companies in total across Retail and CPG) through three mandatory rounds and one optional round, navigating the strategic implications of AI diffusion from early 2026 through 2030.
The exercise tests how leaders think strategically under genuine uncertainty — when AI capabilities are real but uneven, competitive consequences cut both ways, and the right answer for any given company is not obvious in advance.
Why It Works#
Most AI strategy conversations stay abstract — "what should our company do about AI?" with no real competitive pressure, no time horizon, no consequences for getting it wrong. Project Threshold forces senior leaders into specific decisions on specific companies in a specific world, then plays out what happens when those decisions collide with each other and with the AI capability trajectory.
The value is not in the score. The value is in the cross-company dynamics that emerge: when Walmart raises retail media take-rates, the room hears how P&G actually reacts. When the AI labs enter the consumer value chain as direct competitors in 2030, the room collectively grapples with what that means. Participants leave thinking differently than when they walked in.
How It's Structured#
| Round | Year | Function |
|---|---|---|
| Y1 | Early 2026 | First-mover strategic decision; real round with full stakes |
| Y2 | Early 2027 | Reactive decision + commitment to a strategic stance for Y3–Y4 |
| Y5 | 2030 | Long-jump round; world has substantially shifted; surprise competitive reveal |
| Y6 | 2031 | Optional final round (full or 20-minute structured wrap) |
Each round is approximately 60–90 minutes. The exercise runs around 5 hours including debrief.
What Participants Do#
- Make one strategic decision per round for their assigned company, committed to one of five Strategic Archetypes (Labor Reshape, Process Reinvention, Customer/Product Bet, Defensive Hardening, Strategic Swing).
- Engage in a public Resolution phase where Voice of God (the facilitator) names companies impacted by each decision and asks them for short verbal responses before resolving outcomes. Cross-company impact is structural, not abstract.
- Caucus in Retail and CPG clusters during prep, then commit individually.
- Rank peer decisions on Success, Impact, and Aggressiveness — the room calibrates itself in real time.
- Receive private intelligence cards in Y1 and Y2 calibrated to their company's specific strategic situation.
- Commit to a Strategic Stance at the end of Y2 that bridges to Y5 — without yet knowing how Y2 played out.
Who It's For#
The exercise is designed for groups of approximately 8–12 senior participants. Ideal participant profiles:
- BCG senior partners / MDs running consumer-facing client work
- C-suite or SVP-level executives at retail or CPG companies
- Mixed groups of consultants and clients (the exercise works particularly well as a shared-experience format)
- Strategic-planning teams looking to stress-test AI strategy in a structured competitive frame
The exercise assumes basic familiarity with consumer-facing industries and with current AI capabilities. It does not require AI engineering expertise.
What Participants Walk Away With#
- Sharper intuition about how AI competitive dynamics actually play out in their specific industries
- A concrete framework for evaluating strategic bets under capability and competitive uncertainty
- A new appreciation for the difference between "AI as tool" and "AI as competitor" — the central tension the exercise surfaces
- Real-world strategic patterns that emerged across the room: which postures worked, which didn't, and why
- One specific takeaway per participant — the strategic insight they're carrying back to their real role, articulated in the closing round
Logistics#
- Duration: Approximately 5 hours including debrief
- Format: In-person preferred; remote/hybrid possible with modifications
- Materials: Company packets and rules distributed 1 week pre-session for pre-read; Decision Worksheets and private cards distributed at session
- Facilitation: One primary facilitator (acting as Voice of God during Resolution phases); optional second facilitator for scoring and pace management
- Pre-session: Optional 30–60 minute practice walkthrough the evening before to demystify the format
Confidentiality#
Most materials are distributed to participants. Three documents are facilitator-only and never distributed: the Y5 World State document (which contains the long-jump round's surprise reveal), the Anthropic Shopping emergent-company packet, and the TrueGoods emergent-company packet. The exercise's central narrative pivot in Y5 depends on this confidentiality holding through Y1 and Y2.
For session inquiries, design questions, or facilitation requests: see project lead.
Document Version: Project Threshold V8.1 — Executive Overview Last Updated: May 2026
Session Timeline#
Standard 5-hour session timing. Facilitator adjusts pacing in real time based on room energy and discussion depth. Total elapsed time is more important than any individual segment hitting its target.
Standard Session (5 hours, with optional 60-minute pre-session walkthrough the night before)#
| Time | Segment | Duration | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome and orientation | 15 min | Round-table introductions; confirm packets read; quick rules refresh |
| 0:15 | Y1 round | 55 min | Round-opening framing through Y1 cross-company discussion |
| 1:10 | Break | 10 min | Restroom, refreshment, score-tracking buffer |
| 1:20 | Y2 round | 75 min | Includes Y1 outcome narration, full round flow, end-of-Y2 Health Signal announcement |
| 2:35 | Inter-round break and reassignment briefings | 20 min | Critical: facilitator briefs any Crisis-trajectory participants on Y5 reassignment to emergent companies |
| 2:55 | Y5 round | 95 min | Includes Y2-to-Y5 outcome narration, world briefing, AI lab competitive reveal, emergent company introductions, full round flow |
| 4:30 | Y6 round or wrap | 20–45 min | Facilitator selects Mode A (full Y6) or Mode B (20-minute wrap); includes pattern reveal, takeaway round, and closing |
| 4:55–5:15 | End | — | Total elapsed: approximately 5 hours |
Detailed Round Flow#
Y1 (55 min)#
| Time within Y1 | Activity | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Round-opening framing — Y1 Participant Briefing | 5 min |
| 0:05 | Solo prep + private cards | 5–7 min |
| 0:12 | Cluster huddle (Retail / CPG caucuses) | 8–10 min |
| 0:22 | Decision submission | 2 min |
| 0:24 | Public Resolution phase | 20–25 min |
| 0:49 | Peer Ranking | 5 min |
| 0:54 | Cross-company discussion | 10 min |
Y2 (75 min)#
| Time within Y2 | Activity | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Y1 outcome narration (around 30–45 sec per company) | 8–10 min |
| 0:10 | Round-opening framing — Y2 Participant Briefing | 5 min |
| 0:15 | Solo prep + private cards | 5–7 min |
| 0:22 | Cluster huddle | 8–10 min |
| 0:32 | Decision submission (decision + stance card + continuity note) | 2 min |
| 0:34 | Public Resolution phase | 20–25 min |
| 0:59 | Peer Ranking | 5 min |
| 1:04 | Cross-company discussion | 10 min |
| 1:14 | Health Signal announcement (public) | 5 min |
Y5 (95 min)#
| Time within Y5 | Activity | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Y2-to-Y5 outcome narration (around 30–45 sec per company) | 10–12 min |
| 0:12 | The 2030 world briefing (Participant Briefing Part A) | 5–7 min |
| 0:20 | The AI lab competitive reveal (Participant Briefing Part B) | 5–7 min |
| 0:27 | Emergent company introductions by reassigned participants | 5 min |
| 0:32 | Solo prep | 7–10 min |
| 0:42 | Cluster huddle | 8–10 min |
| 0:52 | Decision submission | 2 min |
| 0:54 | Public Resolution phase | 25–30 min |
| 1:24 | Peer Ranking | 5 min |
| 1:29 | Cross-company discussion | 10–15 min |
Y6 Mode A — Full Round (65 min including closing sequence)#
| Time within Y6 | Activity | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Y5-to-Y6 outcome narration | 6–8 min |
| 0:08 | Round-opening framing | 4 min |
| 0:12 | Solo prep | 5 min |
| 0:17 | Cluster huddle | 7–8 min |
| 0:25 | Decision submission | 2 min |
| 0:27 | Public Resolution phase | 15–20 min |
| 0:47 | Peer Ranking | 4 min |
| 0:51 | Cross-company discussion | 8–10 min |
| 1:01 | Closing sequence: Y6 final narration + pattern reveal + takeaway round + facilitator closing | 15 min |
Y6 Mode B — 20-Minute Wrap (fallback)#
| Time within Wrap | Activity | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Y5 final outcome narration (35–40 sec per company) | 8 min |
| 0:08 | Pattern reveal (3–4 patterns, 60–90 sec each) | 5 min |
| 0:13 | Strategic takeaway round (30 sec per participant) | 5 min |
| 0:18 | Facilitator closing — exercise thesis + AGI question | 2 min |
Pre-Session (Optional, Night Before)#
| Activity | Duration | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Welcome and dinner | 30–45 min | Informal |
| Practice walkthrough | 30–45 min | Rules drill + non-scored practice decision on one company; covers worksheet fields, Resolution phase mechanic, scoring |
| Q&A | 15 min | Address format and mechanic questions |
Practice walkthrough is non-scored and isolated from main session. Attendance is encouraged but not mandatory; anyone who misses dinner gets a 15-minute orientation in the morning opening.
Pacing Discipline for the Facilitator#
The exercise will run long unless paced firmly. Key discipline points:
- Resolution phases will want to overrun. Cap them at the time budget. If a confrontation needs more air, give it 60 extra seconds and move on. The room will discuss the unresolved threads in cross-company discussion.
- Y2-to-Y5 outcome narration must stay tight. 10–12 minutes for 12 companies is 50–60 seconds each. Don't slip.
- Cluster huddles can be cut short if energy is low. 8 minutes is fine; 10 is better; 12 starts to dilute.
- The Y6 mode decision must be made by 4:30 latest. A late decision creates pacing chaos.
- Build buffer into transitions. Each round transition has restroom, score-tracking, and reset overhead. The 10-minute breaks are not optional.
Variant Pacing#
If the room is smaller (5–7 participants instead of 12):
- Y1 / Y2 / Y5 / Y6 round durations compress by approximately 15–20%
- Y2-to-Y5 outcome narration shortens proportionally
- Total session approximately 4 hours instead of 5
If the room is larger (12+ participants, with multiple co-facilitators):
- Per-round durations may extend; consider splitting Resolution phase across two co-facilitators
- Total session may extend to 5.5–6 hours
Document Version: Project Threshold V8.1 — Session Timeline Last Updated: May 2026