How to Play#

A simple guide to the exercise for first-time participants.

---

What Is This?#

Project Threshold V7.5 is a tabletop exercise that explores how AI adoption will affect major industries of the US economy over the next 2–4 years. You step into the shoes of an industry leader, make strategic decisions in response to evolving scenarios, and discover how those decisions ripple across the broader economy.

Format: A practice walkthrough at dinner the night before (~60 min, partial attendance OK), plus a 5-hour main session the next morning (8:00 AM – 1:00 PM).

The goal is not to "win" — it's to build intuition about AI's economic effects and test what strategies hold up under realistic pressure.

---

Who Participates?#

There are two roles in the exercise:

Industry Participants (5–11 people). Each person represents one industry. You make decisions for your industry across four rounds. The eleven possible industries are:

Not every exercise uses all 11 industries. The facilitator selects which industries are in play based on participant count and expertise. A minimum of 5 industries ensures cross-industry richness.

Facilitator (1–2 people). Runs the exercise, reads scenario updates, scores decisions, moderates discussion, runs Peer Ranking, and administers Facilitator Market Shock (R2 only).

---

Industry Selection#

Before the exercise, the facilitator assigns each participant to one industry. Ideal: 8+ industries assigned to participants. Fewer is possible — the facilitator plays unassigned industries using base case fallback decisions. If you're running with fewer than 11 participants:

Your industry assignment determines your packet, private cards, and AI adoption arc.

---

What You'll Actually Do#

Before the Exercise#

Read three documents (about 45 minutes total):

1. Executive Overview — the economic scenario and baseline forecasts
2. Your industry packet — the specific position, constraints, and profile for your industry
3. This document — so you understand the flow

You may also review your AI Adoption Arc (from AI Adoption Arcs), which shows how AI adoption unfolds round-by-round for your specific industry.

Night Before — Dinner Practice Walkthrough#

A ~60-min practice walkthrough at dinner the night before the main session. Optional but recommended. Partial attendance is fine — anyone who misses gets oriented in the morning opening.

On Exercise Day#

The day follows this rhythm (5 hours):

---

How a Round Works#

Every round follows the same 10-step structure and takes about 50–60 minutes. There are four rounds total.

---

The Decision Worksheet#

Each round, you submit one worksheet per industry you represent. The worksheet has 13 fields. Most importantly:

No dollar figures. No invented precision. The exercise builds intuition, not financial projections.

---

Market Pressure Mechanics#

Two mechanics create external market pressure throughout the exercise — just like real market dynamics.

Peer Ranking (Every Round, R1–R4)#

After all decisions are read aloud, every participant privately ranks all decisions on Most likely to succeed and Greatest impact (you can't rank your own industry). The facilitator publicly polls Most aggressive (show of hands) — this is read-only commentary, no score impact.

Score impact:

• Most likely to succeed: Top of group +1, bottom -1, all middle 0
• Greatest impact: Top of group +1, bottom -1, all middle 0
• Most aggressive: Read-only — drives discussion, no score

The discussion that follows ("Why is this ranked top? Why bottom?") is where cross-industry learning happens.

Facilitator Market Shock (Round 2 Only)#

At the start of Round 2, the facilitator imposes one constraint each on 2–3 industries from the constraint menu (Regulatory Halt, Labor Cost Surge, Capital Tightening, Reputational Pressure, Competitive Response, Litigation Risk). Any industry can be hit — not just those performing poorly. This forces adaptive decision-making mid-exercise.

Industry Health Signals#

After each round (starting Round 2), the facilitator announces how your industry is doing based on your cumulative score across all rounds. There are five conditions:

These conditions create real consequences — strong early decisions build momentum, while poor decisions compound into structural disadvantage.

---

Private Information Cards#

In Rounds 1–3, you receive a confidential card with industry-specific intelligence (from Private Cards). This might be internal data (e.g., your AI pilot results were weaker than expected), competitive intelligence (e.g., a competitor is about to launch a disruptive product), or regulatory signals (e.g., a major enforcement action is coming).

You can reference your card's information in your decisions and in discussion, but you shouldn't read the card aloud verbatim. Cards accumulate — keep them all and use them in later rounds.

There is no card in Round 4. The final round operates on public information only.

---

AI Adoption Arc#

Each industry has an AI Adoption Arc (from AI Adoption Arcs) that describes how AI adoption unfolds round-by-round for your specific industry. This provides context for your decisions: what stage of AI deployment your industry is in, what capabilities are becoming available, and what constraints are shifting.

Review your arc before the exercise and reference it each round as you make decisions.

---

Scoring#

Each decision gets scored in two layers that combine for a total of -6 to +6 per round.

Layer 1 — Facilitator Bands:

Layer 2 — Peer Ranking: Most likely to succeed (top +1, bottom -1) + Greatest impact (top +1, bottom -1).

A round score of +5 to +6 means you nailed both layers. A score of 0 means your decision was reasonable but unremarkable. Negative scores mean your logic had gaps or peers saw something you missed.

Scoring exists to create structure and feedback — it's a tool for learning, not a competition.

---

The Debrief (30–60 min flex)#

The debrief consolidates what you learned across all four rounds. Default 30 min; can flex up to 60 if R4 was the contingency block.

---

Key Principles#

You're building intuition, not being tested. There are no right answers. The value is in the reasoning, the trade-offs you surface, and the cross-industry dynamics you discover.

Decisions are binding. Once you submit a decision, you can't undo it. You can modify or build on it in later rounds, but you live with your choices. This mirrors real strategic decision-making.

The discussion of peer rankings is where the learning happens. Each round's discussion of "Why ranked top? Why bottom?" is not filler — it's the most valuable part of the exercise. Challenge each other. Ask "how does your decision affect my industry?" Surface the interdependencies.

Cluster huddles before submission. Every round, you meet briefly with peers in your industry cluster (Consumer / Healthcare / F&PS / Supply Chains / Software & Tech) to refine your decision. Use the time to pressure-test your thinking. The final decision is still yours.

Use broad strokes, not false precision. When describing your decisions, use the provided bands (low/medium/high, pilot/regional/national). Don't invent specific dollar amounts or percentages unless the exercise materials provide them.

Private information creates realistic asymmetry. Not everyone knows the same things. This is by design. It mirrors real markets where different actors have different intelligence.

---

Quick Reference: The Eleven Industries#

Project Threshold V7.5 — Master Timeline#

Format: Dinner practice walkthrough (night before) + 5-hour main session (8:00 AM – 1:00 PM)

Key Principle: Plan for 4 scored rounds + debrief. R4 contingency at the 11:25 break: if behind schedule, R4 runs as discussion-only and debrief extends.

---

DINNER PRACTICE WALKTHROUGH (Night Before)#

Attendance: Partial attendance acceptable. Anyone who misses gets oriented in the morning opening.

---

MAIN SESSION TIMELINE (8:00 AM – 1:00 PM)#

Total day-of: ~5 hours. Buffer is built into the breaks (~5 min each) and the debrief flex (15–60 min).

---

ROUND STRUCTURE (R1–R4)#

Each round runs ~50–60 minutes. Steps and timings approximate; facilitator paces to budget.

Round budget by round:

• R1: ~45 min (no outcome narration; no Market Shock)
• R2: ~55 min (outcome narration + Market Shock both fire)
• R3: ~50 min (outcome narration; no Market Shock)
• R4: ~50 min (outcome narration; no private cards)

Each round has buffer to the 60-min block budget.

---

INDUSTRY CLUSTERS (For Step 5 Huddles)#

Participants huddle within their cluster every round to refine and pressure-test decisions before submission.

---

R4 CONTINGENCY (Decision at 11:25 Break)#

At the 11:25 break, lead facilitator assesses:

The contingency is a planned decision point, not improvisation. The facilitator briefing details how to handle each scenario.

---

DEBRIEF STRUCTURE (Flex 15–60 min)#

Default: 30 min (when R4 was a full scored round). If R4 was contingency: Debrief extends to 50–60 min, includes the "what's the new normal" reflection.

---

TIME-AT-A-GLANCE#

NIGHT BEFORE
~Dinner — 60-min practice walkthrough (partial attendance OK)

MAIN DAY
8:00 - Opening
8:15 - R1 Foundation
9:15 - Break
9:20 - R2 Acceleration (Market Shock)
10:20 - Break
10:25 - R3 Reckoning
11:25 - Break + TIME CHECK
11:30 - R4 Normalization (or contingency)
12:30 - Debrief
1:00 - END

Total: ~5 hours main session. Debrief flexible 15–60 min based on R3/R4 timing.

---

FACILITATOR CHECKLIST#

• Night-before dinner: practice walkthrough run; partial attendance OK
• 7:45 AM: All materials printed and organized by industry; cluster seating arranged
• 8:00 AM: Welcome; brief any non-dinner attendees on rules + worksheet
• Every round: Set visible timer (countdown projected)
• Every round: Distribute private cards from Private Cards at start of solo prep (R1–R3 only)
• Every round: Distribute AI Adoption Arc handouts at start of solo prep (R2–R4)
• R2 specifically: Announce Facilitator Market Shock during step 2
• R2/R3/R4 specifically: Deliver Outcome Narration + Industry Health Signal conditions during step 1
• Every round: Facilitate Peer Ranking (steps 7–9) including public Aggressiveness poll
• Every round: Score Strategic Fit + Execution Risk per worksheet (Tail Risk dimension removed in V7.5)
• After every round: Update cumulative scores + prep next-round outcome narration during break
• 11:25 break: TIME CHECK — call R4 scored or contingency
• 12:30: Transition to debrief
• 1:00: Hard stop. Thank participants.

Practice Walkthrough (Dinner, Night Before)#

Purpose#

This document scripts the practice walkthrough that runs at the dinner the night before the main session. Goal: demystify the worksheet, archetypes, bands, round flow, and scoring so participants are ready for R1 the next morning.

No carryover into the real exercise. Practice scores don't count.

---

Overview#

• Duration: ~60 minutes (over dinner; relaxed pacing)
• Attendance: Partial attendance acceptable. Anyone who misses gets a 15-min orientation in the morning opening.
• Materials: Decision Worksheet handouts, Quick Reference Card, the Rules of Play
• Output: Confidence with the format. No real scores.

---

Block 1: Welcome + Introductions (~10 min)#

Brief intros. Set the tone: relaxed but focused. Highlight that the goal of the exercise is intuition-building, not performance evaluation. No right answers — the value is in the reasoning and cross-industry dynamics.

---

Block 2: Rules Drill (~15 min)#

Walk through the worksheet and the round flow, in order:

The Worksheet (5 min)#

Show one printed worksheet. Walk through all 13 fields:

1. Industry — straightforward
2. Strategic Archetype — mandatory; pick ONE: Labor Reshape / Process Reinvention / Customer/Product Bet / Defensive Hardening / Strategic Swing
3. Decision Statement — 1–2 sentences 4–8. The 5 bands (Spend / Time / Complexity / Dependency / Scale) — check one per band, brief justification
4. Expected Impact — qualitative, no dollar figures
5. Key Risk & Mitigation
6. Cross-Industry Synergies
7. Private Card Influence (R1–R3 only)
8. Continuity Note (R2–R4 only)

Emphasize: No invented precision. "Material but manageable" not "$15.3M."

The Round Flow (5 min)#

Walk through the 10 steps once:

1. Outcome Narration (R2+ only) — facilitator narrates ~30–45 sec per industry on what happened
2. Market Shock (R2 only)
3. Situation Update + Inject Cards
4. Solo prep (~5 min)
5. Cluster huddle (~10 min) — small groups by industry cluster; discuss + revise
6. Submit (LOCKED at submission)
7. Read decisions aloud
8. Peer Ranking — Success + Impact private; Aggressiveness public
9. Discussion of rankings
10. Facilitator scoring (parallel with #9)

Scoring (5 min)#

Two layers:

• Facilitator: Strategic Fit (-2/0/+2) + Execution Risk (-2/0/+2); ±3 only on red-flag triggers
• Peer: Most likely to succeed (top of group +1, bottom -1) + Greatest impact (top +1, bottom -1) + Most aggressive (read-only)
• Round total: -6 to +6

Note that Tail Risk dimension was removed in V7.5; catastrophic-risk concerns now handled via red-flag triggers + peer ranking.

---

Block 3: Mini Practice Round (~30 min)#

Run a simple, low-stakes practice round on a stripped-down version of one industry. No real scoring.

Practice Setup#

Scenario (read aloud):

"It's January 2026. A frontier AI lab releases a copilot system that scores 90% on professional licensing exams. Three Fortune 500 companies announce 25% cuts to entry-level hiring, redirecting savings to AI tool licenses. Each of you, working alone, will fill out one decision worksheet for a single industry — pick whichever you'll be representing in the exercise tomorrow (or pick any industry you find interesting)."

Practice Run (30 min total)#

Key teaching moments:

• Show how a clearly-bounded decision (e.g., Material + 3–12mo + Medium + Vendor + Regional) scores well on Execution Risk
• Show how a red-flag combination (e.g., Transformational + 0–3mo + Very High + Ecosystem + Global) gets challenged
• Show how the peer ranking discussion ("why did this rank top? bottom?") drives learning
• Highlight how aggressiveness is read-only — discussed but not scored

Example Scoring Walk-Through (One Decision)#

Pick a participant's decision. Walk through it live:

"OK, this Retail decision: Process Reinvention archetype, deploy AI demand forecasting to 500 stores in 90 days, existing vendor.

Bands: Absorbable + 0–3mo + Low + Vendor + Regional.

Strategic Fit +2 — Process Reinvention is a well-chosen archetype here; addresses the margin-defense opportunity vs. Amazon directly.

Execution Risk +1 — Bands check out: proven tech + vendor partnership + phased rollout. Could go higher if entirely internal, but +1 is solid.

Peer ranking — we'll see where this lands. Let's poll the table now: who's ranking this top on Success? Top on Impact? Anyone calling this most aggressive?"

---

Block 4: Q&A (~15 min)#

Open floor. Anticipate these questions:

---

Wrap-Up (1 min)#

"That's the format. Tomorrow morning we run R1 cold at 8:15. Your worksheet, the 5 archetypes, the round flow — that's what you need. Don't memorize, just trust the structure. See you at 8:00."

---

Appendix: Quick Reference Cheat Sheet#

---

End of Practice Walkthrough Script