Facilitator Overview & Runbook#
Exercise Overview#
Project Threshold V7.5 is a tabletop exercise that stress-tests near-term (2026–2030) economic implications of AI across eleven US industries. Individual industry participants navigate four sequential rounds, refine decisions in cluster huddles, lock at submission, and evaluate each other through structured peer ranking.
Key Parameters#
| Parameter | Value |
|---|
| Format | Dinner practice walkthrough night before + 5-hour main session (8:00 AM – 1:00 PM) |
| Participants | 5–11 industry representatives + 1–2 facilitators |
| Industries per participant | 1–3 (recommend 2). One worksheet per industry per round. |
| The 11 Industries | Retail, CPG, Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer, Finance, Consulting, Law, Manufacturing, Logistics, Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS |
| Rounds | 4 sequential periods (Foundation, Acceleration, Reckoning, Normalization) |
| Strategic Archetypes | 5 mandatory options: Labor Reshape / Process Reinvention / Customer/Product Bet / Defensive Hardening / Strategic Swing |
| Scoring | Two layers — Facilitator (Strategic Fit + Execution Risk) + Peer Ranking (Success + Impact + Aggressiveness) |
The 11 Industries#
| Industry | Key Concerns |
|---|
| Retail | Demand forecasting, supply chain, labor displacement, brand trust with personalization |
| CPG | Brand safety, R&D acceleration, retailer power dynamics, DTC execution risk |
| Healthcare Provider | Clinical AI workflows, FDA approval, patient safety, physician adoption |
| Healthcare Payer | Claims automation, prior authorization, MLR limits, member backlash |
| Finance | Underwriting/fraud AI, fair-lending compliance, systemic risk, talent retention |
| Consulting | Copilot adoption, vertical AI expertise, junior talent pipeline, pricing pressure |
| Law | Billable hour disruption, bar rule compliance, malpractice liability, associate leverage |
| Manufacturing | Predictive maintenance, OT/IT integration, union relations, capex allocation |
| Logistics | Route optimization, autonomous vehicles, driver adoption, last-mile economics |
| Big Tech | Cloud capex, enterprise AI platforms, antitrust scrutiny, margin pressure. Excludes AI lab/model dev. |
| B2B/B2C SaaS | AI feature integration, pricing pressure, startup disruption, margin compression |
Facilitator Role#
| Phase | Responsibilities |
|---|
| Pre-exercise | Assign industries; print and organize materials; run dinner practice walkthrough |
| Opening | Brief any non-dinner attendees; confirm assignments; distribute materials |
| Each round | Outcome narration (R2+); Market Shock (R2 only); manage round flow (situation update → solo prep → cluster huddle → submission → read-aloud → peer ranking → discussion) |
| Scoring | Strategic Fit + Execution Risk per worksheet; apply red-flag triggers; collect peer ranking aggregates |
| Between rounds | Update cumulative scores; determine Industry Health conditions; prep next-round outcome narration |
| R4 contingency | At 11:25 break, decide: full R4 scored round OR discussion-only contingency |
| Debrief | 30–60 min flexible debrief on themes, archetypes used, peer ranking insights, no-regrets actions |
Round Flow (10 Steps)#
| # | Step | Time | Notes |
|---|
| 1 | Outcome Narration + Industry Health Signals | 4–5 min | R2/R3/R4 only — skip R1 |
| 2 | Facilitator Market Shock | 3 min | R2 only |
| 3 | Situation Update + Inject Cards | 4–5 min | Facilitator reads world context + new injects |
| 4 | Solo prep | ~5 min | Read prompt + private card + AI Adoption Arc |
| 5 | Cluster huddle | ~10 min | Small groups by industry cluster — discuss + revise |
| 6 | Submit decisions (LOCKED) | 2 min | Worksheets handed in; no further revision |
| 7 | Read decisions aloud | ~5 min | Each participant reads their locked decision |
| 8 | Peer Ranking | ~5 min | Success + Impact private; Aggressiveness public |
| 9 | Discussion of rankings | ~10 min | "Why top? Why bottom?" |
| 10 | Facilitator scoring | parallel with 9 | Strategic Fit + Execution Risk |
Industry Cluster Groupings (Step 5)#
| Cluster | Industries |
|---|
| Consumer | Retail, CPG |
| Healthcare | Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer |
| Finance & Professional Services | Finance, Consulting, Law |
| Supply Chains | Manufacturing, Logistics |
| Software & Tech | Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS |
Materials Distribution#
| Round | Private Cards (R1–R3 only) | AI Adoption Arc |
|---|
| Pre-exercise | — | Foundation phase in pre-read |
| Round 1 | Card 1 (shared within clusters) | Confirm Foundation phase received |
| Round 2 | Card 2 (unique per industry) | Acceleration phase handout |
| Round 3 | Card 3 (unique per industry) | Reckoning phase handout |
| Round 4 | None — symmetric information | Normalization phase handout |
Scoring Mechanics (Quick Reference)#
Two-Layer Scoring Per Decision#
| Layer | What | Range |
|---|
| Facilitator | Strategic Fit + Execution Risk; ±3 only on red-flag trigger | -4 to +4 (or ±6 with red-flag) |
| Peer | Most likely to succeed (top +1, bottom -1) + Greatest impact (top +1, bottom -1) | -2 to +2 |
| Aggressiveness | Public poll, drives discussion | Read-only, no score |
| Round total | Sum of facilitator + peer | -6 to +6 |
Industry Health Signals (Cumulative)#
| Cumulative | Condition | Effect |
|---|
| +15+ | Surge | One Transformational decision allowed without auto red-flag |
| +6 to +14 | Tailwind | No modifier |
| -5 to +5 | Steady | No modifier |
| -6 to -14 | Headwind | One constraint imposed; must address before submitting |
| -15 or worse | Crisis | Two constraints + pure-growth decisions auto -2 Strategic Fit |
Strategic Archetypes (Mandatory on Worksheet)#
| Archetype | Description |
|---|
| Labor Reshape | Workforce, talent, augmentation, headcount restructuring |
| Process Reinvention | Workflows, operational systems, end-to-end redesign |
| Customer/Product Bet | New products, propositions, channels, markets |
| Defensive Hardening | Compliance, security, capital discipline, risk reduction |
| Strategic Swing | M&A, partnership, platform play, big bet |
Practice Walkthrough (Dinner, Night Before)#
Purpose: Demystify the format. No scoring carryover into the main session.
| Block | Time | Content |
|---|
| Welcome + intros | ~10 min | Brief intros |
| Rules drill | ~15 min | Walk through worksheet, archetypes, bands, round flow |
| Mini practice round | ~30 min | Single-industry walkthrough; demonstrate cluster huddle, peer ranking, scoring |
| Q&A | ~15 min | Address questions on format, scoring, peer ranking |
Attendance: Partial attendance acceptable. Anyone who misses gets a 15-min orientation in the morning opening.
Cross-Industry Discussion Prompts (Step 9)#
Use these during the discussion of rankings to surface dynamics. Pick 1–2 per round.
| Cluster | Sample prompts |
|---|
| Consumer | How does Retail's AI-driven inventory optimization affect CPG's demand forecasting? If Retail cuts shelf space for AI-optimized assortment, how does CPG respond? |
| Healthcare | How do Provider AI investments interact with Payer claims automation? Who bears the risk of AI errors? |
| Finance & PS | How does Finance's AI underwriting affect Consulting advisory demand? How does the billable-hour shift in Law interact with outcome-based pricing in Consulting? |
| Supply Chains | How does Manufacturing's predictive maintenance affect Logistics demand and routing? How does AV adoption disrupt both? |
| Software & Tech | If Big Tech bundles AI features into cloud platforms, what happens to standalone SaaS pricing? |
| Cross-cluster | If Manufacturing and Logistics automate aggressively, how does that flow through to Retail and CPG supply chain costs? |
Decision Specificity Checklist#
Before scoring, verify:
| Item | Example |
|---|
| Industry | Retail / CPG / Healthcare Provider / etc. |
| Strategic Archetype | One of 5; matches decision content |
| WHO | Team owner; sponsor |
| WHAT | Specific capability (not "deploy AI") |
| WHERE | Scope (stores, plants, practice groups) |
| WHEN | Realistic timeline for the band selected |
| HOW | Talent plan, integration, rollback |
| BANDS | All 5 bands clear (Spend, Time, Complexity, Dependency, Scale) |
If >2 missing or archetype mismatched → ask for clarification before scoring. No dollar figures expected.
Red-Flag Triggers (Quick Summary)#
When fired, unlock ±3 on Strategic Fit or Execution Risk. Stop, ask participant to reframe (narrower scope, longer timeline, lower spend, add hedges). If reframed credibly → may unlock +3. If not → -2 to -3.
| Category | Red-Flag |
|---|
| Timeline misalignment | Global/National + 0–3mo + no pilot |
| Overcommitted complexity | Transformational + Very High + Ecosystem + <12mo |
| Industry constraints | Healthcare AI + no FDA plan; Finance + no fair-lending; Law + no bar compliance / no attorney review; Consulting + no client confidentiality; >30% headcount cut + no severance |
| Unhedged catastrophe | Autonomous + no rollback; AI legal work without attorney review |
| Existential bet | Existential + 2+yr + Very High + Ecosystem |
| Archetype mismatch in Crisis | Pure-growth archetype while in Crisis condition (auto -2 Strategic Fit) |
Time Management#
Hard Stops#
| Activity | Time | Rule |
|---|
| R1 Foundation | 60 min | First scored round |
| R2 Acceleration | 60 min | Outcome narration + Market Shock |
| R3 Reckoning | 60 min | Outcome narration |
| R4 Normalization | 60 min | OR contingency: discussion-only + extended debrief |
| Debrief | 30–60 min flex | Flex up if R4 was contingency |
| Day-end | 1:00 PM | Hard stop |
R4 Contingency Decision (At 11:25 Break)#
| Status | Action |
|---|
| On schedule | Run R4 as scored round; 30-min debrief |
| 5–10 min behind | Compress R4 cluster huddle to 5 min; discussion to 7 min |
| >10 min behind | Contingency: R4 runs as 30-min discussion-only on "what's the new normal" + extended debrief (50–60 min) |
If Falling Behind#
- Use baselines religiously — no nuance debates
- Skip optional injects (keep core)
- Compress peer-ranking discussion to 5 min
- Apply R4 contingency
If Ahead#
- Add optional injects
- Extend cluster huddle or peer ranking discussion
- Extend debrief to surface deeper themes
Materials Checklist#
Next: See Adjudication Rules for detailed scoring guidance + Quick Reference Card for at-hand laminated reference.