Facilitator Overview & Runbook#

Exercise Overview#

Project Threshold is an 8-hour tabletop exercise designed to stress-test near-term (2026-2030) economic implications of AI across eleven US industries. Individual industry participants navigate four sequential rounds under different AI deployment scenarios, make strategic decisions individually, and evaluate industry-level implications through cross-industry discussion.

Key Parameters#

The 11 Industries#

Note on Big Tech scope: Big Tech covers cloud infrastructure, advertising, devices, and enterprise software. AI lab and foundation model development decisions are excluded from participant scope and introduced via facilitator injects only.

Facilitator Role & Responsibilities#

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Private Cards & AI Adoption Arc Distribution#

Distribute the appropriate materials to each participant at the start of each round, before the scenario read.

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Exercise Timeline#

The master timeline for the 8-hour exercise is in 01_Timeline.md. Refer to that document for the complete minute-by-minute schedule, round structure, sub-block durations, debrief structure, and facilitator checklist. All clock times, break placements, and duration allocations are defined there.

Key reference values: Rounds 1–4 at 65 min each (5 + 3 + 15 + 3 + 12 + 27). Debrief at 60 min (15 + 25 + 20). Exercise runs 8:30 AM – 4:30 PM.

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Practice Micro-Round (Before Round 1)#

Purpose: Teach participants the individual decision format, scoring model, and specificity checklist in 5 minutes flat.

Inject: "A major consultancy just announced that AI copilots have reduced junior hiring by 40%. Entry-level salaries are down 15%. What do you do?"

Decision Format Example: "The Consulting participant proposes: Deploy GitHub Copilot to 25% of consulting staff (pilot phase, major US offices only) over 90 days. Pair with mandatory training. Commit to zero involuntary headcount reduction in pilot phase. Budget: $2M for licensing and training. Success metric: Track analyst productivity and time-to-billable-hours."

Facilitator Scoring (Live):

Facilitator debrief: "Notice how the participant specified WHO (25% of staff), WHAT (GitHub Copilot), WHERE (major US offices), WHEN (90 days), HOW MUCH ($2M), HOW (training plan), RISK (pilot-only, no layoffs). That specificity made scoring easy. Vague proposals (e.g., 'accelerate AI adoption') get challenged. This is individual decision-making -- you're deciding alone for your assigned industries."

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Running with Minimal Staff#

Project Threshold V7.4 can run with 1 facilitator + 1 helper or 1 facilitator solo:

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Facilitator Discussion Prompts: Cross-Industry Synergies & Tensions#

Use these prompts during the 27-minute cross-industry discussion period to surface dynamics across industries. Scan the table below for the relevant cluster and pick 1-2 prompts per round.

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Tips for Facilitating#

Decision Specificity Checklist (Apply Before Every Explicit Score)#

Before scoring an explicit decision, verify the participant specified:

If >2 items missing: "I need more specificity before I score. Can you clarify [issue]? And how would you classify this in terms of Spend, Complexity, and Dependency? That changes the execution risk profile."

After Round Scoring: Apply Base Case Fallbacks#

After scoring all explicit industry decisions:

1. Identify any industry that received no explicit action from any participant
2. Reference the fallback bank (Base Case Fallback Bank)
3. Apply the pre-defined fallback score (deterministic, small deltas: +/-1 per dimension)
4. Post fallback score alongside explicit scores for transparency
5. Fallback industries receive standard base case scores

Example facilitator announcement: "Participant covering Retail and CPG submitted one explicit decision on Retail (+2/6). CPG received no explicit action. Applying base case fallback: CPG = +1/6 (defensive cost-reduction move). Both scores now posted."

Challenging Implausible Proposals#

Use this template:

"I appreciate the ambition. Let me ask for clarity on [specific issue]. Your proposal as stated is [current scope]. That changes the execution risk significantly. Here's what I can score: [narrower scope with realistic timeline]. That gives you [Strategic Fit] + [Execution Risk] + [Tail Risk] = [Total]. Alternatively, if you want [different tradeoff], we can score [different proposal]. Which direction?"

Red-Flag Triggers (When to Challenge)#

Industry Health Signals (End of Round Only)#

• Score first (3 dimensions, banded {-2, 0, +2})
• Apply fallbacks to any industries without explicit participant decisions
• At end of round, update cumulative scores for all 11 industries
• Look up Industry Condition from the condition band table (see Industry Health Signal Tables)
• Announce conditions at start of next round (~2 minutes)
• Apply constraints for any industry in Headwind or Crisis

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Time Management#

Hard Stops (Non-Negotiable)#

If Falling Behind#

If Ahead of Schedule#

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Scoring Mechanics (Quick Reference)#

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Materials Checklist#

• Scenario briefs (one per participant + facilitator)
• Decision packets / worksheets (forms for recording WHO/WHAT/WHERE/WHEN/HOW/HOW MUCH/RISK; one per industry per round)
• Private Cards sorted by round (from Private Cards)
• AI Adoption Arc handouts for Rounds 2-4 (from AI Adoption Arcs; Foundation phase in pre-read)
• Scoring sheet template (one per round; track all industry decisions)
• Adjudication rules card (laminated for reference)
• Quick reference card (facilitator)
• Plausibility decision trees (for red-flag checks)
• Industry baselines (for calibration)
• Industry Health Signal tables (for end-of-round condition announcements)
• Base case fallback bank (for industries without explicit decisions)
• Timer (or phone timer) for Collective Bonus, Market Shock, and round transitions
• Flip chart + markers (for posting scores and Collective Bonus results after each round)

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Next: See Adjudication Rules for detailed scoring guidance for 11 industries.