Adjudication Runbook#

Facilitator Note

FACILITATOR-ONLY. Operational reference for running the Resolution phase and producing outcome narration. Read fully before the first session. Reference between rounds during the session.

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1. The Resolution Phase — Operational Mechanics#

The Resolution phase is the V8.1 core mechanic. It replaces V8.0's Collective Bonus and Facilitator Market Shock. It runs publicly (with the whole room watching) for approximately 20–30 minutes per round.

Phase Inputs#

When decisions lock at submission, you have in front of you:

• 12 Decision Worksheets (or N, if smaller roster), each with:
  • Strategic Archetype
  • Decision Statement and bands
  • Cross-Company Impact field (who they targeted and how)
  • Continuity Note (Y2 onward)
  • Strategic Stance (Y2 only)
  • Private Card Influence note

You will also have:

• The round's situation context (from the round file)
• Cumulative scores from prior rounds (Y2 onward)
• Standing alliances, M&A in motion, coalitions from prior Resolution phases

Phase Goal#

Adjudicate the round's outcomes. For decisions with cross-company impact, name impacted parties publicly, solicit short verbal responses, then narrate resolution. For internal-only decisions, narrate briefly without consultation.

Phase Sequence#

Total: approximately 20–25 minutes for Y1 and Y2; 25–30 minutes for Y5.

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2. Identifying Cross-Company Impact#

A decision has meaningful cross-company impact when it:

• Targets a specific competitor by name. Worksheet Cross-Company Impact field names a company.
• Restructures category economics. Take-rate changes, major pricing moves, private-label expansion announcements.
• Initiates explicit competitive action. M&A approaches (friendly or hostile), coalition invitations, alliance formations, public challenges.
• Materially shifts another company's options. Capacity moves, capex commitments, regulatory actions, public-affairs campaigns.
• Visibly affects the political or consumer environment. Industry-visible labor reductions, public-position statements on contested topics.

A decision is solo / internal when it:

• Stays within the company's own operations. Back-office AI deployment, supply chain optimization, internal restructuring with no external visibility.
• Affects only the company's own customers. Membership tier adjustments, internal product development, marketing creative production.
• Is purely capital management. Buyback execution, dividend adjustment, internal capital allocation.

Use your judgment. If a decision is on the borderline, consult — better to give a participant the chance to respond than to skip them and have to backtrack.

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3. The Consultation — How to Run Each Confrontation#

Frame the Move Publicly#

Read the decision aloud (paraphrasing for clarity if needed). Name the action specifically.

"Walmart has decided to raise Walmart Connect take-rates by 20% effective Q2, prioritizing the highest-paying CPG advertisers and explicitly framing this as a value-extraction move."

Name the Targeted Parties#

Identify everyone meaningfully affected and call them out by company name.

"P&G — how do you respond? Unilever? PepsiCo? Kraft Heinz? Edgewell?"

If 4+ parties are affected, you can group them, but make sure each gets a chance to respond:

"All of the major branded CPG players in the room: walk me through what you do. P&G first, then Unilever, then the others."

Get Short Verbal Responses#

Each named party gives a 30–60 second qualitative response. Acceptable responses:

• Absorb. "We absorb the take-rate increase and protect our shelf placement."
• Push back. "We negotiate; we threaten to redirect 20% of Walmart spend to off-platform DSPs."
• Ally. "We coordinate with Unilever to present a unified counter-proposal."
• Withdraw. "We pull all Walmart Connect spend; we accept the share loss; we double down on Amazon Ads."
• Escalate. "We file an antitrust complaint; we go public with our objection."
• Concession with conditions. "We accept the take-rate but demand category-exclusivity assurances."

Hold respondents to time. If someone wants to negotiate, let them surface a counter-proposal, but resolve substance in your narration.

Narrate the Resolution#

Now you decide what happened. Pull from:

• The responses you just heard
• The plausibility of each option given real-world dynamics
• The cumulative competitive context
• The room's collective behavior (Was there a coalition? Did someone defect?)

Be decisive. Be specific.

"OK, here's how this plays out. Walmart's take-rate increase holds for the highest-paying CPGs because the threat-to-defect is credible only for around half the room. P&G absorbs but quietly diverts 15% of marketing budget to Amazon and TikTok Shop, which Walmart will see in Q3 spend trends. Unilever and PepsiCo coordinate as you suggested — they present a counter-proposal that Walmart partially accepts (category-exclusivity for a 12-month lock-up). Kraft Heinz, you absorb without conditions because you don't have leverage. Edgewell, you exit Walmart Connect for the year and accept the shelf consequences."

The narration should resolve the substance — who got what, what the consequence is, what carries forward.

Move On#

Don't litigate the narration. If a participant disagrees with the outcome, acknowledge briefly and move forward — the disagreement itself is data for the cross-company discussion later. You are the referee; the room's job is to react to your call, not to revise it in real time.

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4. Common Move Types and How to Handle Them#

Retail Media Take-Rate Change#

Major M&A Approach#

Private Label Expansion Announcement#

Coalition or Alliance Formation#

DTC Channel Investment or Brand Direct-to-Consumer#

Major Workforce Restructuring#

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5. Y1 Outcome Narration (Used at Y2 Open)#

At the start of Y2, narrate each company's Y1 outcome in 30–45 seconds. Three components per narration:

1. What they did — their archetype and decision (1 sentence)
2. The consequence — specific, plausible, 12-month forward (1–2 sentences)
3. Where they stand entering Y2 — strategic position, tensions (1 sentence)

Template#

"[Company]: your [archetype] decision to [X] [worked / partially worked / backfired]. [Specific consequence — what's visible by early 2027]. Going into Y2, you are [positioned for / facing / managing] [specific situation]."

Quality Bar#

A good narration:

• Names the decision specifically (not "your AI strategy")
• Names the consequence specifically (not "things were mixed")
• Sets up Y2 strategic tension for that company
• Connects to other companies' decisions when relevant

A poor narration:

• Vague ("you did some things; some worked, some didn't")
• Generic ("Walmart had a strong year")
• Disconnected from the room's collective action
• Telegraphs the Y5 reveal

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6. Y2-to-Y5 Outcome Narration (Used at Y5 Open)#

Y5 narration covers three years (Y2 + Y3–Y4 stance period + arrival at Y5). Slightly longer than Y1 narration — typically 35–45 seconds per company.

Template#

"[Company]: your Y2 decision to [X] under [archetype], combined with your Y3–Y4 stance of [Aggressive growth / Operational discipline / Strategic pivot], produced [specific three-year trajectory]. By 2030, [where they stand]. Your Health Signal trajectory was [condition] — [what that means for Y5 starting position]."

Critical Additions#

• Surface the stance card explicitly. Each company chose a stance; the narration must reflect it.
• Reflect Health Signal. Surge companies have visible acquisitions completed; Crisis companies are gone (replaced by emergent companies).
• Set up the Y5 strategic challenge specific to that company, but stop short of full reveal (Steps 2 and 3 of the Y5 reveal sequence handle the AI lab competitive entry).

See Y5 round file Section 3 for illustrative examples.

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7. Y5 Final Outcome Narration (Used in Y6 Wrap)#

If running Y6 Mode B (20-minute wrap), the final outcome narration is 35–40 seconds per company. Heavier than the Y5 opening narration because it is the final outcome — where each company ends up.

Template#

"[Company]: through Y1, Y2, and Y5, you [archetype trajectory]. Your stance choice of [stance] [played out / against / consistent with] the 2030 world. By the close, you are [final position]. The strategic lesson: [single sentence]."

The lesson sentence is critical. It is what participants will remember. Make it specific to the company and the room's play. See Y6 round file Section 3.2 for illustrative examples.

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8. What Voice of God Is Not Allowed to Do#

Across all rounds and narration:

• Do not reveal the Y5 surprise before Y5. AI labs are framed as vendors / partners / hyperscalers in Y1 and Y2. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google can be named — but never as future retail/CPG competitors.
• Do not pre-determine Y5 outcomes during Y1 / Y2. Narration in Y1 / Y2 should resolve those rounds' decisions; Y5 narration is its own moment.
• Do not let scoring drive narration. A company can have a low score but a strategically defensible Y1 decision — narration honors the decision, scoring captures the room's assessment. They are separate.
• Do not impose facilitator preferences on participant decisions. A participant who plays defensive is not "wrong" — they made a choice; you narrate the consequence.
• Do not reveal exact scores. Health Signal condition (Surge / Tailwind / Steady / Headwind / Crisis) is the appropriate granularity for participants to see at end of Y2. Underlying numbers stay with the facilitator.
• Do not soften reveals to protect feelings. A Crisis-trajectory participant being reassigned is a structural element of the exercise, not a punishment. Frame it that way and move forward.

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9. When You Don't Know What to Do#

In real time during a Resolution phase, defaults:

• If two participants disagree on what should happen — listen briefly, then narrate the outcome that is most plausible in the real world. Your job is to be the referee.
• If a participant proposes something implausible — narrate failure or partial success ("you attempt to do X, but in 2026 the regulatory environment makes that approach untenable; what actually happens is Y"). Don't punish creativity, but don't reward unrealistic moves either.
• If the room is in deadlock on a coalition formation — call it. Either the coalition forms with stated terms, or it doesn't. Don't let it linger.
• If you've narrated something that doesn't quite work — you can refine in the cross-company discussion if needed, but don't backtrack the formal outcome.

When between rounds, default to:

• Re-reading the round file for that round
• Consulting the Y5 World State if you're approaching Y5
• Trusting your read of the room

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Document Version: Project Threshold V8.1 — Adjudication Runbook Last Updated: May 2026