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Facilitator Guide
Facilitator Quick Reference Card
Facilitator Quick Reference Card#
PRINT THIS. Laminate. Keep at hand during live play.
1. SETUP#
- 5–11 participants, each represents 1+ industries (recommend 2 max)
- 11 industries: Retail, CPG, Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer, Finance, Consulting, Law, Manufacturing, Logistics, Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS
- One worksheet per industry per round. Industries without explicit decisions → apply base case fallback (Base Case Fallback Bank)
- Materials: Private Cards (R1–R3, from Private Cards); AI Adoption Arc handouts (Phases 2–4 at start of R2/R3/R4, from AI Adoption Arcs)
2. STRATEGIC ARCHETYPES (Mandatory Selection on Worksheet)#
Every decision must fit within ONE of these archetypes. Same set, all rounds.
| Archetype | Description |
|---|---|
| Labor Reshape | Workforce, talent, augmentation, headcount restructuring |
| Process Reinvention | Workflows, operational systems, end-to-end redesign |
| Customer/Product Bet | New products, propositions, channels, markets |
| Defensive Hardening | Compliance, security, capital discipline, risk reduction |
| Strategic Swing | M&A, partnership, platform play, big bet |
During scoring: Note when an industry's archetype choice is unusual or repeated across rounds (interesting discussion fuel).
3. ROUND FLOW (per round, ~50–60 min)#
| # | Step | Time | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Outcome narration (R2/R3/R4 only) | 3–5 min | Facilitator narrates ~30–45 sec per industry: "Here's what happened" |
| 2 | Solo prep | ~5 min | Participants review prompt + private cards + AI Adoption Arc |
| 3 | Cluster huddle (small groups by industry cluster) | ~10 min | Discuss, pressure-test, revise decisions |
| 4 | Submit decisions | 2 min | LOCKED at submission. No further revision. |
| 5 | Read decisions aloud | ~5 min | Each participant reads their locked decision |
| 6 | Peer ranking | ~5 min | Success (private), Impact (private), Aggressiveness (public) |
| 7 | Discussion of rankings | ~10 min | "Why top? Why bottom?" — the learning happens here |
| 8 | Facilitator scoring | parallel with #7 | Strategic Fit + Execution Risk |
4. SCORING — TWO LAYERS (Per Decision)#
Layer 1: Facilitator Bands (Strategic Fit + Execution Risk)#
| Dimension | -2 | 0 | +2 | Exception (±3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Fit | Misaligned; opportunity cost | Neutral; reasonable move | Captures core opportunity | Unlock ±3 if red-flag fires |
| Execution Risk | Major barriers; hard to execute | Feasible; moderate change mgmt | Straightforward; resources ready | Unlock ±3 if red-flag fires |
Facilitator total: -4 to +4 (or ±6 with red-flag exceptions).
Layer 2: Peer Ranking (post-discussion)#
| Axis | How it scores | Visibility |
|---|---|---|
| Most likely to succeed | Top of group: +1, Bottom: -1, Middle: 0 | Private rank, aggregated |
| Greatest impact | Top of group: +1, Bottom: -1, Middle: 0 | Private rank, aggregated |
| Most aggressive | Read-only — drives discussion only | Public poll |
Peer total per decision: -2 to +2
Round Total#
Strategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2) + Peer Success (±1) + Peer Impact (±1) = -6 to +6 per round
5. RED-FLAG TRIGGERS (Unlock ±3 on Strategic Fit OR Execution Risk)#
| Category | Red-Flag Band Combo | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Timeline Misalignment | Global/National + 0–3mo + no pilot | Offer narrower scope or longer timeline |
| Overcommitted Complexity | Transformational + Very High + Ecosystem + <12mo | Challenge scope; propose pilot phase |
| Regulatory Constraint | Healthcare + no FDA plan; Finance + no fair-lending plan; Law + no bar compliance; Consulting + no client confidentiality plan | Push back hard; require safeguards |
| Unhedged Catastrophe Risk | Autonomous + no rollback; AI legal work without attorney review; >30% headcount cut + no severance plan | Refuse to score until hedged |
| Existential Bet | Existential spend + 2+yr + Very High + Ecosystem | Reframe as narrower scope OR accept -3 |
When fired: Stop. Ask participant to reframe (narrower scope / longer timeline / lower spend / add hedges). If reframed credibly → may unlock +3. If not → -2 to -3.
6. PEER RANKING MECHANIC (Replaces Former Collective Bonus)#
Every round, every decision. Runs in steps 6–7 of round flow.
| Step | Action | Time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | All decisions read aloud (already happened in step 5) | — |
| 2 | Each participant privately writes their ranking on Success and Impact (1 = best, N = worst) | ~3 min |
| 3 | Facilitator publicly polls "Most aggressive" (show of hands or quick verbal poll), tallies on flip chart | ~2 min |
| 4 | Facilitator collects Success + Impact rankings, aggregates, identifies top and bottom on each axis | ~1 min (parallel with #5) |
| 5 | Open discussion: "Why did this rank top? Why bottom?" Cross-industry exchange | ~10 min |
| 6 | Top of Success = +1; Bottom = -1; all middle = 0. Same for Impact. Aggressiveness = read-only. | applied at scoring |
Cannot rank own industry — exclude from your own ranking.
7. OUTCOME NARRATION (Start of R2, R3, R4)#
Facilitator narrates ~30–45 sec per industry based on prior round outcome. Sets up new round.
Template: "[Industry]: your [decision archetype] in R[n-1] [worked / partially worked / backfired]. [Specific consequence]. Going into this round, you're in [Health Signal condition]."
Examples:
- "Retail: your Process Reinvention bet on demand forecasting paid off. Margins held, brand intact. Wall Street notices. Going into R2, you're in Tailwind."
- "Healthcare Provider: your aggressive diagnostic AI deployment outran the FDA pathway. Bar association is asking questions. You're in Headwind — one constraint imposed this round."
8. FACILITATOR MARKET SHOCK (R2 ONLY, ~3 min)#
| Step | Action |
|---|---|
| 1 | Facilitator selects 2–3 industries (any industry can be targeted) |
| 2 | Impose one constraint each from constraint menu (cannot repeat constraint type) |
| 3 | Announce publicly. Targeted industries must adapt their R2 decision before submission |
Constraint menu: Regulatory Halt / Labor Cost Surge / Capital Tightening / Reputational Pressure / Competitive Response / Litigation Risk
9. INDUSTRY HEALTH SIGNALS (Cumulative Score → Condition)#
Announced at start of R2/R3/R4 as part of outcome narration.
| Cumulative | Condition | Mechanical Effect |
|---|---|---|
| +15+ | Surge | One Transformational-band decision allowed without auto-red-flag challenge |
| +6 to +14 | Tailwind | No modifier |
| -5 to +5 | Steady | No modifier |
| -6 to -14 | Headwind | One constraint imposed; must address before submitting |
| -15 or worse | Crisis | Two constraints imposed; pure-growth play scores auto -2 Strategic Fit |
10. INDUSTRY WATCH-OUTS (Calibrate Strategic Fit + Watch for Red-Flags)#
| Industry | Strat Fit Typ | Exec Risk Typ | Key Red-Flag Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 0 | 0 | Aggressive personalization → brand backlash; >15% labor cut + no transition |
| CPG | 0 | 0 | DTC bypass → retailer retaliation; AI-generated content + no review |
| Healthcare Provider | 0 | -1 | Diagnostic AI + no FDA pathway; physician adoption gaps |
| Healthcare Payer | +1 | 0 | >70% auto-denials + no human review; MLR regulatory limits |
| Finance | +1 | -1 | Autonomous trading + no circuit breakers; AI underwriting + no bias audit |
| Consulting | +1 | 0 | >40% junior cuts + no pipeline plan; client confidentiality gaps |
| Law | +1 | -1 | AI work product + no attorney review; bar compliance; >30% associate cuts |
| Manufacturing | 0 | 0 | >30% headcount cut + no union/severance plan |
| Logistics | +1 | 0 | Full AV fleet + no regulatory pathway; driver/union resistance |
| Big Tech | +2 | +1 | Antitrust scrutiny; AI lab/model dev OUT OF SCOPE |
| SaaS | +1 | 0 | Pricing change + <6mo + no customer plan |
11. SCORING DECISION TREE (~60 sec per decision)#
- Specificity check (5 sec): Industry / Archetype / WHO / WHAT / WHERE / WHEN / HOW + bands clear?
- If >2 missing → ask for clarification before scoring
- Red-flag check (5 sec): Any band combo from Section 5?
- If YES → challenge; reframe or accept ±3
- Score (40 sec):
- Strategic Fit: -2 / 0 / +2 (or ±3 if red-flag)
- Execution Risk: -2 / 0 / +2 (or ±3 if red-flag) — use band translation table
- Wait for peer ranking — apply Success ±1 + Impact ±1 after discussion
- Post total: "Round score: [n] / 6. Drivers: [archetype + bands + key peer signal]"
12. TIME MANAGEMENT (5-Hour Day, 8am–1pm)#
| Block | Time |
|---|---|
| Dinner night before — practice walkthrough | ~60 min, optional attendance |
| 8:00–8:15 — Opening, recap, brief non-dinner attendees | 15 min |
| 8:15–9:15 — R1 Foundation | 60 min |
| 9:15–9:20 — Break | 5 min |
| 9:20–10:20 — R2 Acceleration (Market Shock) | 60 min |
| 10:20–10:25 — Break | 5 min |
| 10:25–11:25 — R3 Reckoning | 60 min |
| 11:25–11:30 — Break + TIME CHECK | 5 min |
| 11:30–12:30 — R4 Normalization or contingency: discussion-only | 60 min |
| 12:30–1:00 — Debrief (flex 30–60 min) | 30 min |
R4 contingency rule: At 11:25 break, if behind schedule, run R4 as discussion-only (no new decisions, no scoring) and extend debrief.
If Falling Behind#
- Use baselines religiously — no nuance debates
- Skip optional injects (keep core)
- Compress peer-ranking discussion (5 min instead of 10)
- Apply R4 contingency
13. RED-FLAG CHALLENGE TEMPLATE#
"I appreciate the ambition. Let me ask for clarity:
Your proposal: [Restate]
My concern: [Specific red-flag]
What I can score: [Narrower scope with realistic timeline/hedges]
That gives: Strategic Fit [n] + Execution Risk [n] (peer ranking pending)
Alternative: If you want [different tradeoff], we score [different scope].
Which direction?"
14. MATERIALS CHECKLIST#
- Decision Worksheets (multiple copies per participant; one per industry per round)
- Private Cards sorted by round (R1–R3, from Private Cards)
- AI Adoption Arc handouts for R2/R3/R4 (from AI Adoption Arcs)
- Scoring sheets (1 per round; explicit + fallback breakdown per industry)
- This quick reference card (laminated)
- Adjudication Rules + Plausibility Decision Trees + Industry Baselines
- Industry Health Signal Tables + Base Case Fallback Bank
- Constraint menu reference card
- Flip chart + markers (post peer rankings, scores, conditions)
- Timer (phone OK)
15. DEBRIEF QUESTIONS (Hit Top 3–5; flex 30–60 min)#
- Which industries proved to be winners? Losers? Surprises?
- What surprised you most about how cross-industry dynamics played out?
- Which Strategic Archetype did you find yourself returning to — and why?
- What did the peer ranking reveal that the facilitator scoring didn't?
- What does this exercise change about your view of AI impact 2026–2030?
- If you ran this again, what would you do differently?
PRINT. LAMINATE. FACILITATE BRISKLY. PEERS DRIVE THE LEARNING.