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Facilitator Guide
Facilitator Quick Reference Card (Industry-Level)
Facilitator Quick Reference Card (Industry-Level)#
PRINT THIS. Keep handy during live play. Max 2 pages.
CRITICAL: Individual participant model (V7.4):
- 5-11 participants: Each selects 1+ industries. Ideal: 8+ assigned; facilitator plays unassigned industries (up to 3). One decision worksheet per industry per round.
- 11 industries: Retail, CPG, Healthcare Provider, Healthcare Payer, Finance, Consulting, Law, Manufacturing, Logistics, Big Tech, B2B/B2C SaaS
- After explicit scoring: Apply base case fallbacks to industries without explicit participant decisions (reference Base Case Fallback Bank)
- Card distribution: Private Cards from Private Cards (3 per industry, Rounds 1-3). AI Adoption Arc handouts from AI Adoption Arcs (Phases 2-4 at start of Rounds 2-4).
Each industry decision is scored independently on its own context. Fallback industries receive pre-defined scores from fallback bank (deterministic; no participant input).
1. DECISION SPECIFICITY CHECKLIST (Before Every EXPLICIT Industry Decision)#
- INDUSTRY ID: Which industry? (Retail? CPG? Finance? Consulting? Law? Healthcare Provider? etc.)
- WHO: Team owner? Committed sponsor?
- WHAT: Specific capability? (e.g., "Contract review copilots," not just "AI delivery")
- WHERE: Scope for this industry? (500 stores? 8 plants? Full fleet? 3 practice groups?)
- WHEN: Realistic timeline for this industry?
- HOW MUCH: Capex, headcount, revenue impact for this industry? (quantify only for M&A/major capex/regulatory commitment)
- HOW: Talent plan? Integration? Rollback?
- RISK: Execution + tail risk acknowledged for THIS industry?
- BANDS: Classify as Spend, Time, Complexity, Dependency, Scale (e.g., "Material, 3-12mo, Medium, Vendor, Regional")
Missing >2 items OR bands unclear? -> Ask for clarification before scoring. No explicit decision for an industry? -> Apply base case fallback (reference Base Case Fallback Bank).
2. BANDED SCORING CHEAT SHEET#
| Dimension | -2 | 0 | +2 | Exception (+/-3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Fit | Misaligned; opportunity cost | Neutral; reasonable move | Captures core opportunity | Red-flag: unlock +/-3 if severe |
| Execution Risk | Major barriers; hard to execute | Feasible; some change mgmt needed | Straightforward; talent/capital ready | Red-flag: unlock +/-3 if barriers severe |
| Tail Risk | Exposed to downside; no hedges | Neutral; standard risk | Includes hedges/rollback plan | Red-flag: unlock +/-3 if catastrophic |
Total Score Range: -6 to +6 (typical: -2 to +6)
Interpretation:
- +5 to +6: Strong (70%+ success). Accept.
- +1 to +4: Acceptable (50-70% success). Monitor.
- -2 to 0: Weak. Challenge; ask participant to narrow scope.
- <-2: Poor. Reject or reframe significantly.
3. RED-FLAG TRIGGERS (Band Combinations -> Unlock +/-3 Exception)#
Red-Flag Categories (Band-Based)#
| Category | Red-Flag Band Combo | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Timeline Misalignment | Global/National + 0-3mo + no pilot phase | Offer narrower scope or longer timeline |
| Overcommitted Complexity | Transformational + Very High + Ecosystem shift + <12mo | Challenge scope; propose pilot phase |
| No Execution Plan | Missing talent/integration/regulatory plan for banded complexity | Demand specificity (see checklist above) |
| Industry Constraints | Healthcare AI + no FDA plan; Finance + no circuit breakers; Law + no bar compliance; Consulting + no client confidentiality plan | Push back hard; add safeguards before scoring |
| Unhedged Tail Risk | Autonomous + no rollback; >30% cut with no severance plan (M&A context); AI legal work filed without attorney review | Refuse to score until hedged |
When band red-flag fires: Unlock +/-3 scoring. Reference decision trees (Plausibility Decision Trees) to calibrate. Challenge participant to narrow scope, extend timeline, reduce complexity, or lower spend. Can drop to -3 or rise to +3 depending on response.
4. ARCHETYPE QUICK GUIDE (15 Strategic Patterns)#
| # | Archetype | Typical Range | Red-Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deploy AI System | +0-2 | Enterprise <6mo; novel tech; no plan |
| 2 | Acquire Competitor | -1-+1 | >$5B deal; antitrust; <3mo close |
| 3 | Cut Headcount | -1-+1 | >30% in <6mo; no severance; union |
| 4 | Exit Market | -1-+2 | No buyer; core asset; fire-sale |
| 5 | Launch AI Product | +0-+2 | Unproven market; no alpha; huge capex |
| 6 | Form Partnership | +0-+2 | No partner identified; vague scope |
| 7 | Build Proprietary AI | -1-+1 | No talent; massive capex; unproven ROI |
| 8 | Deploy Autonomous | -2-+1 | No circuit breakers; no oversight |
| 9 | Major Org Restructure | -1-+1 | >50% changes; no change mgmt |
| 10 | Aggressive Pricing | -2-0 | Commodity market; below-cost |
| 11 | Build Data Capability | -1-+1 | No talent; competitors faster |
| 12 | Pivot Markets | -1-+1 | Unvalidated; abandons advantage |
| 13 | Geographic Expansion | -1-+1 | Geopolitical risk; unfamiliar regulatory |
| 14 | Invest in Defense | -1-0 | Purely defensive; no upside |
| 15 | Wait & See | -2-0 | Market accelerating; competitors moving |
5. INDUSTRY SCORING QUICK REFERENCE (11 Industries)#
| Industry | Strat Fit Typ | Exec Risk Typ | Tail Risk Typ | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 0 | 0 | 0 | Amazon competition; brand backlash; DTC execution |
| CPG | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | Brand safety (AI content); retailer power; DTC backlash |
| Healthcare Provider | 0 | -1 | -1 | Patient safety liability; physician adoption; FDA timeline |
| Healthcare Payer | +1 | 0 | 0 | Denial backlash; regulatory MLR limits; member satisfaction |
| Finance | +1 | -1 | -1 | Fair lending enforcement; systemic risk; fraud arms race |
| Consulting | +1 | 0 | 0 | Junior talent pipeline; pricing pressure; client in-house AI competition |
| Law | +1 | -1 | -1 | Bar rule uncertainty; malpractice liability; billable hour disruption; associate leverage erosion |
| Manufacturing | 0 | 0 | -1 | Union relations; labor transition; OT/IT integration |
| Logistics | +1 | 0 | -1 | Driver adoption; AV regulatory uncertainty; last-mile limits |
| Big Tech | +2 | +1 | -1 | Antitrust scrutiny; margin pressure from CapEx; open-source competition. Excludes AI lab/model dev. |
| B2B/B2C SaaS | +1 | 0 | -1 | Pricing pressure (AI bundling); startup disruption; margin compression |
Use to calibrate each industry separately. Don't conflate industries.
6. RED-FLAG CHALLENGE TEMPLATE#
"I appreciate the ambition. Let me ask for clarity:
Your proposal: [Restate as you understand it]
My concern: [Specific red-flag: timeline, execution risk, regulatory, tail risk, synergies]
What I can score: [Narrower scope with realistic timeline/hedges]
That gives: [Strategic Fit] + [Execution Risk] + [Tail Risk] = [Total]
Alternative: If you want [different tradeoff], we can score [different scope].
Which direction?"
7. TIME MANAGEMENT (Industry-Level Scoring + Fallbacks)#
Critical Parameters for V7.4#
| Activity | Time | Flexibility | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Individual decision preparation | 15 min | 5 min flex | Each participant prepares decisions for their assigned industries |
| Decision submission | 3 min | ZERO | Late = auto-drop to fallback |
| Scoring (variable explicit decisions) | 10-12 min | Use baselines | ~1.5-2 min per explicit decision; count depends on participants x industries |
| Apply base case fallbacks | 2 min | Quick ref | For each industry without explicit action, apply deterministic fallback from bank |
| Collective Bonus | ~2-3 min per round | Within discussion | Optional: participants nominate strong/risky strategies. +2/-2 if 3+ agree. |
| Facilitator Market Shock | 3 min (R2 only) | ZERO | Facilitator selects 2-3 industries, imposes one constraint each from menu. Cannot repeat constraint type. |
| Debrief | 60 min | ZERO | Non-negotiable. Never cut. |
Scoring Pace#
With 2 facilitators:
- Facilitator 1 scores Consumer grouping (Retail, CPG) + Supply Chains grouping (Manufacturing, Logistics) + Big Tech
- Facilitator 2 scores Healthcare grouping (Provider, Payer) + Finance & PS grouping (Finance, Consulting, Law) + SaaS
- Apply fallbacks for non-submitted industries simultaneously
- Total time: 10-12 min (explicit scoring + fallbacks)
With 1 facilitator:
- Use industry baselines aggressively; aim for 1.5 min per explicit decision
- Apply fallbacks quickly using fallback bank (deterministic, <30 seconds total)
- Prioritize explicit decisions; fallbacks are mechanical
If Falling Behind#
- Use baselines religiously (no nuance debates; reference baseline, post score, move)
- Skip optional injects (keep core injects #1-#8)
- Reduce debrief to 45 min (hit top 3 questions only)
If Ahead#
- Add optional injects
- Deepen cross-industry discussion (ask "why?" on strategy)
- Extend debrief (explore tail risks, policy implications)
- Run war game (2028 scenario; 15 min)
8. COLLECTIVE BONUS & FACILITATOR MARKET SHOCK REFERENCE#
Collective Bonus (Optional, Every Round, R1-R4)#
| Step | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Facilitator opens floor (~2-3 min within cross-industry discussion) | "Does anyone want to recognize an especially strong strategy this round, or flag one that seems particularly risky?" |
| 2 | Participants who wish to respond nominate one industry in each direction | Optional — not all participants need to speak. Cannot nominate own industry. |
| 3 | If 3+ participants agree: +2 cumulative score bonus (strong) or -2 penalty (risky) | Applied to that industry's running total. Max one +2 and one -2 per round. |
| 4 | If no consensus or no nominations: no bonus applied | Move on. This is optional by design. |
Facilitator Market Shock (R2 Only, ~3 min)#
| Step | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Facilitator selects 2-3 industries | Any industry may be targeted. |
| 2 | Impose one constraint per industry from constraint menu | Cannot impose same constraint type on multiple industries. |
| 3 | Announce constraints publicly | Constrained industries must adapt in their next decision. |
After Collective Bonus + Market Shock (Rounds 2-4): Announce Industry Health conditions (~2 min). Look up cumulative scores → condition band (Surge +15+ / Tailwind +6–14 / Steady -5–+5 / Headwind -6–-14 / Crisis -15-). Apply constraints for Headwind/Crisis industries.
9. PRACTICE MICRO-ROUND CHECKLIST#
Before Round 1, run 10-min demo:
- Inject: "Consultancy reports copilots cut junior hiring 40%."
- Mock decision: Consulting participant proposes copilot deployment (25% staff, 90 days, $2M budget, zero layoffs in pilot).
- Live scoring: Strat Fit 0 + Exec Risk +1 + Tail Risk +1 = +2/6.
- Debrief: "See how specificity made scoring easy? Vague proposals get challenged."
- Q&A: Any questions on decision format, scoring, red-flags?
10. SCORING DECISION TREE (60 seconds per explicit decision; 30 sec per fallback)#
For EXPLICIT Decisions#
- Specificity check: WHO/WHAT/WHERE/WHEN/HOW/HOW MUCH/RISK + BANDS specified?
- Band plausibility: Any red-flag band combo? (see #3 above) -> If YES, challenge; offer narrower scope/longer time.
- Strategic Fit: -2 / 0 / +2 (or +/-3 if band red-flag fires)
- Execution Risk: -2 / 0 / +2 (or +/-3 if band red-flag fires) -- use band translation table
- Tail Risk: -2 / 0 / +1 (or +/-3 if band red-flag fires)
- Total = Strat Fit + Exec Risk + Tail Risk
- Post score. Explain concisely (1-2 sentences); reference bands that drove score.
For FALLBACK Industries (No Explicit Decision)#
- Identify industry without explicit action
- Reference fallback bank (Base Case Fallback Bank)
- Apply pre-defined fallback score (deterministic: +/-1 per dimension, e.g., {0, +1, 0})
- Post fallback score. Announce: "[Industry] falls back to +1/6 (defensive cost-control move)"
- Move on. Fallback is automatic; no participant input required.
After ALL Scoring (Explicit + Fallback)#
- Update cumulative score for each industry (running total across all rounds)
- Look up Industry Condition (Surge +15+, Tailwind +6 to +14, Steady -5 to +5, Headwind -6 to -14, Crisis -15 or worse)
- Announce at start of next round (~2 min). Apply constraints for Headwind/Crisis.
11. BASE CASE FALLBACK APPLICATION CHECKLIST (After Scoring Explicit Decisions)#
- Identify industries across all participants that received NO explicit action this round
- For each fallback industry, reference the fallback bank (Base Case Fallback Bank)
- Note the deterministic fallback score (small fixed delta: +/-1 per dimension)
- Add fallback to industry aggregate (e.g., Retail +2 + CPG fallback +1 = both posted separately)
- Announce fallback (e.g., "CPG falls back to +1/6 -- defensive cost control")
- Update cumulative scores and determine Industry Health conditions for next round announcement
Important: Fallbacks are deterministic. Do NOT negotiate. Participants wanting to improve fallback industries must submit explicit decisions next round.
12. MATERIALS CHECKLIST#
- Scenario briefs (1 per participant + facilitator)
- Decision worksheets (WHO/WHAT/WHERE/WHEN/HOW/HOW MUCH/RISK + BANDS forms; 1 per industry per round)
- Private Cards sorted by round (from Private Cards)
- AI Adoption Arc handouts for Rounds 2-4 (from AI Adoption Arcs)
- Scoring sheets (1 per round; show explicit + fallback breakdown per industry)
- This quick reference card (laminated)
- Adjudication rules (Adjudication Rules)
- Plausibility decision trees (Plausibility Decision Trees)
- Industry baselines (Scoring Baselines)
- Industry Health Signal tables (Industry Health Signal Tables)
- Base case fallback bank (Base Case Fallback Bank)
- Band-to-score translation table (from Adjudication Rules or Scoring Baselines)
- Timer (phone timer OK)
- Flip chart + markers (post scores per industry)
13. KEY QUESTIONS FOR DEBRIEF (Hit These)#
- Which AI timeline emerged? (Slow / Baseline / Fast)
- Which industries proved to be winners? Losers? Surprises?
- What policy gaps remain unresolved?
- What surprised you about execution vs. strategy? (Which band combinations proved hardest?)
- If you ran this again, what would you do differently?
- How did the multi-industry model affect your decision quality and strategic thinking?
- What cross-industry dynamics surprised you most? (e.g., how did Law's billable hour pressure interact with Consulting's pricing transition?)
- What does this exercise change about your view of AI impact 2026-2030?
Print this card. Laminate. Reference during live play. Keep pace brisk. Facilitate, don't debate.