Quick Reference Card#
Facilitator Note
FACILITATOR-ONLY. One-page cheat sheet. Print and pin during the session.
Round Sequence#
| Round | Year | Status | Notes |
|---|
| Y1 | 2026 | Mandatory | First-mover; no continuity; no stance card |
| Y2 | 2027 | Mandatory | Continuity Note required; Stance Card required |
| Y5 | 2030 | Mandatory | Long-jump; AI lab competitive reveal; emergent companies |
| Y6 | 2031 | Optional or wrap | Mode A full round / Mode B 20-min wrap |
Per-Round Flow#
| # | Activity | Duration |
|---|
| 1 | Round-opening framing (Y2+: outcome narration first) | 5–10 min |
| 2 | Solo prep + private cards | 5–7 min |
| 3 | Cluster huddle (Retail / CPG) | 8–10 min |
| 4 | Decision submission — LOCKED | 2 min |
| 5 | Public Resolution phase | 20–30 min |
| 6 | Peer Ranking | 5 min |
| 7 | Cross-company discussion | 10 min |
| End of Y2: | Health Signal announcement | 5 min |
Scoring#
Strategic Fit (±2) + Execution Risk (±2) + Peer Success (±1) + Peer Impact (±1) = Round total (-6 to +6)
Red-flag exception: ±3 on either facilitator dimension. Aggressiveness is read-only.
Strategic Fit Quick Calibration#
| Score | Means |
|---|
| -2 | Misaligned with scenario; opportunity cost |
| 0 | Defensible but not bold |
| +2 | Captures core opportunity; clear positioning |
| ±3 | Red flag only — extraordinary fit or extraordinary mismatch |
Execution Risk Quick Calibration#
| Score | Means |
|---|
| -2 | Major barriers; ambitious beyond capacity |
| 0 | Feasible; some change management needed |
| +2 | Straightforward; resources / talent ready |
| ±3 | Red flag only — structurally infeasible or near-zero risk |
Health Signal Thresholds (Cumulative Y1+Y2)#
| Score | Condition | Y5 Trajectory |
|---|
| +8 or higher | Surge | Dominant; acquires a peer |
| +3 to +7 | Tailwind | Expanded |
| -2 to +2 | Steady | Persists |
| -3 to -7 | Headwind | Diminished |
| -8 or worse | Crisis | Fails / reassigned to emergent |
Strategic Archetypes (mandatory; same set across all rounds)#
| Archetype | What it captures |
|---|
| Labor Reshape | Workforce, talent, augmentation, headcount |
| Process Reinvention | Workflows, operational systems, end-to-end redesign |
| Customer/Product Bet | New products, propositions, channels, markets |
| Defensive Hardening | Compliance, security, capital discipline, risk reduction |
| Strategic Swing | M&A, partnership, platform play, big bet |
Strategic Stance Card (Y2 only — narrative, not scoring)#
| Stance | Posture for Y3–Y4 |
|---|
| Aggressive growth | Spend capital, take share, ride the cycle |
| Operational discipline | Productivity, efficiency, return capital |
| Strategic pivot | Reshape portfolio, enter/exit categories |
Common Move Types in Resolution Phase#
| Move | Who triggers | Who gets consulted |
|---|
| Retail media take-rate change | Retail-media-operating retailer | All CPGs |
| Major M&A approach | Capital-rich player | Target + competing acquirers |
| Private label expansion | Costco, Walmart, Amazon, Kroger | Branded CPGs in affected category |
| Coalition / alliance formation | Multiple players | Targeted dominant player |
| DTC channel investment | CPGs | Affected retailers |
| Price aggression | Walmart, Amazon, Costco | Direct competitors |
| Workforce restructuring at scale | Any large player | Political environment shift for all |
| Y5-specific: AI agent integration refusal | Retailers | Anthropic Shopping |
| Y5-specific: anti-agent coalition | Multiple retailers/CPGs | Anthropic Shopping + allies |
What Voice of God Must NOT Do#
- ❌ Reveal AI labs as competitors before Y5
- ❌ Soften the Y5 reveal
- ❌ Pre-determine Y5 outcomes during Y1/Y2 narration
- ❌ Reveal exact scores (only Health Signal condition)
- ❌ Treat reassignment as punitive
- ❌ Let Resolution phase overrun
- ❌ Score inconsistently across companies
- ❌ Forget the AGI tease in closing
Companies (12)#
| Cluster | Companies |
|---|
| Retail (7) | Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Target, Kroger, Best Buy, Sprouts |
| CPG (5) | P&G, PepsiCo, Unilever, Kraft Heinz, Edgewell |
Emergent Companies (Y5 — facilitator-only until Y5)#
- Anthropic Shopping — vertical commerce agent
- TrueGoods Brands — premium "Made by Humans" CPG portfolio
Closing Anchor (memorize)#
"AI diffuses at the speed of the slowest constraint in each industry — and in this exercise's 2030, the slowest constraint became the strategic intelligence of the operator. AGI was not in this exercise. AGI is the question your real companies are now answering."
Document Version: Project Threshold V8.1 — Quick Reference Card